CFTC Bitcoin Positions Weekly Report: Bearish sentiment is fermenting "against the trend", is the short-term turning point coming?
The latest CFTC CME Bitcoin Positions Weekly Report (November 29 – December 5) released on December 9 shows that Bitcoin StandardcontractTotal holdings rose slightly from 23027 to 23035, setting a new record high. However, the increase in this period was significantly lower than that of the previous week. As the Bitcoin market continued to accelerate in the latest statistical period, the choices made by several types of accounts during the rise are the key points of this weekly report.
The long position of the largest dealer account dropped from 676 to 647, and the short position further increased from 6408 to 6439, which once again refreshed the historical high level. This type of account once again made a net short adjustment in the latest statistical period. Although the adjustment range was limited, such large institutions continued to carry out net short operations against the backdrop of very strong market performance, and their bearish attitude towards the future market has become increasingly clear. This is undoubtedly a clear warning signal that the short-term market may usher in a wave of corrections. Whether to "believe" the judgment of such large institutional accounts with a high accuracy rate in the long run requires everyone to carefully consider.
The long position of asset management institutions increased from 11448 to 11735, which continued to set a new historical high. The short position remained unchanged at 0. Asset management institutions continued to make net long adjustments in the latest statistical period, and continued to maintain a strongly bullish attitude towards the market outlook in recent times.
The long position of leveraged funds decreased from 4479 to 4390, and the short position decreased from 13303 to 12535. The values have fallen from the historical highs. Such accounts have carried out simultaneous reductions in both long and short positions in the latest statistical period. However, the extent of reduction was significantly smaller than the extent of increase in both directions in the previous statistical period. However, considering that the long-short position ratio has not changed much, it is still believed that such accounts have continued their bearish attitude for some time.
The long positions of large accounts dropped from 3720 to 3030, falling from the historical high, and the short positions rose from 1565 to 1691. This type of accounts has made a clear net cold adjustment in the latest statistical period. As the representative force of the bulls in recent times, the performance of large accounts turning short at this time point deserves attention.
Retail investors' long positions fell from 1,688 to 1,641, and short positions rose from 735 to 778. Retail investors made clear net short position adjustments in the latest statistical period. This type of account has been fluctuating in recent weeks, but combined with the adjustments of several other types of accounts in the latest statistical period, the short-term market "panic" sentiment is obvious.
miniaturecontract
比特币微型合约总持仓量自 9584 上升至 11235。
The long position of dealer accounts increased from 255 to 868, and the short position increased from 2734 to 3383. This type of account carried out simultaneous long and short holdings in micro contracts, which did not affect the bearish thinking expressed by this type of account in standard contracts.
The long position of the asset management institution account dropped from 1535 to 1493, and the short position increased from 0 to 25. The asset management institution conducted a net short position adjustment in the micro contract. Considering that the adjustment range is consistent with the net long position adjustment of the standard contract, it is a classic short-term risk hedging operation.
The leveraged fund's long position increased from 2240 to 2460, and the short position increased from 4690 to 5069. The leveraged fund once again increased its long and short holdings simultaneously during the latest statistical period. The long-short position ratio did not change much, and there was no clear unilateral direction. Therefore, the bearish attitude expressed in the standard contract was not affected.
The long positions of large investors increased from 2047 to 2510, and the short positions increased from 890 to 975. These accounts increased their long and short positions simultaneously during the latest statistical period. The long-short position ratio did not change much, and the absolute values of the two-way increase were similar. Therefore, the long-to-short attitude shown by these accounts in standard contracts was not reversed in micro contracts.
Retail long positions since 3Xiaobai Navigation296 rose to 3688, and short positions increased from 1059 to 1567.
Nano Contract
The Bitcoin Nano contract is a nano Bitcoin (BIT) futures contract launched in June this year (2023) by Lmx Labs, a company acquired by Coinbase. Each contract represents 1/100 of a Bitcoin.
The total open interest of Bitcoin Nano contracts increased from 6,095 to 7,201.
The long position of the dealer account decreased from 1775 to 1607, and the short position remained unchanged at 0.
The long position of the asset management institution account remains unchanged at 0, and the short position remains unchanged at 0.
Leveraged fund long positions increased from 105 to 207, while short positions decreased from 2348 to 2339.
Large investors’ long positions increased from 3491 to 4425, and short positions increased from 3334 to 4281.
Retail long positions increased from 722 to 959, while short positions increased from 411 to 578.
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