Musk and Trump's public spat

Everyone who cares about and analyzes American politics will predict that Trump and Musk will eventually break up and publicly tear each other apart. Therefore, the breakup between Trump and Musk is a highly predictable and widely predicted event. But this still does not prevent the fight between the two on social media from becoming a hot news and after-dinner talk around the world.

Background on Musk and Trump's split 

Musk was a Republican in his early years. During Trump's first term, he had some unpleasant experiences with Trump (after Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, Musk withdrew from Trump's business advisory group). The two were not close, and the fundamental reason for their closeness was that Musk had completely lost confidence in the Democratic Party. After Trump was assassinated for the first time in July 2024, Musk joined the Trump camp in a high-profile manner, donated $300 million in the general election, made X support Trump on all platforms, and led a large number of technology right-wingers to join the Trump/MAGA camp. For a time, people regarded Silicon Valley's ending of the political "deal" with the Democratic Party and the political re-alignment with MAGA as a very important historical event in this century. In the technology circle, Musk helped transform Trump from a "political taboo" that was not on the stage to a trend that could be proudly pursued. What followed was the marriage of the Trump administration with emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.

But the political convergence of Musk and Trump has always been a political expediency - the so-called "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". MAGA provided votes, Musk and the tech right provided funds and media, and the two sides worked together to push Trump to the White House and countless MAGA politicians to Congress. But the foundation of this political alliance has never been solid, because Trump's base MAGA is mainly composed of middle- and low-income white Americans. They advocate populist economic policies and have always been extremely disgusted with big companies and big capital - whether it is Silicon Valley giants, Wall Street giants, Hollywood, or American companies that are crazy about overseas outsourcing. The MAGA base believes that big companies and big capital only consider their own business interests, never "America first", and never center on the American people. Therefore, Musk and the tech right have always been regarded as speculators who "joined the MAGA revolution at the last minute" and are viewed with caution by the MAGA camp. The support of Musk and other tech right wingers for skilled immigrants has also greatly dissatisfied the MAGA base, believing that Musk has exposed his feet, and the separation of the tech right and MAGA may only be a matter of time.

Musk joined the Trump camp and set himself a political agenda from the beginning: improve government efficiency, cut government spending, reduce the government deficit, and avoid US bankruptcy.Why Musk fully supports Trump - an interpretation based on an interviewIn this interview, Musk expressed his own thoughts and proposed to establish a "Government Efficiency Committee" to help Trump in the government after he takes office.

Improving government efficiency, cutting government spending, reducing the government deficit, and preventing U.S. bankruptcy are the most important political agreements between Musk and Trump.

After Trump took office, Musk led the so-called "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), with the ambition to cut spending by $2 trillion. After a few months, it was a mess, offending countless Trump aides, and was severely criticized by the government system and the media. In the end, it only "saved" more than $100 billion (and the number does not stand up to scrutiny). In fact, DOGE has become a tool for the Trump administration to control the federal government system ("deep government"), and Musk has become a "tool man" and political "cannon fodder". In the end, the project ended in failure. And Musk was also reviled politically because of his full commitment, which in turn affected his business empire. 

Musk has been observing Trump closely since he joined the Trump administration. He has actually been secretly deducting points from Trump in various things he has experienced in the past few months. From wrong policies (tariff war) to all the crony capitalist behaviors that Trump and his family have done to enrich themselves, Musk hates them all. However, Musk has taken the overall situation into consideration. Although he deducts points from Trump in his heart, he leaves room for maneuver. In order to achieve his own goals, he "endures" it and does not say it to the outside world, but only expresses his opinions in a tactful way.

Until the introduction of Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill", it became the last straw that destroyed their relationship. This "Big Beautiful Bill" involves tax cuts and spending, which is expected to increase the US budget deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. This bill can be said to be an act of economic suicide. The bond market has reacted violently. All of Musk's DOGE efforts have become a joke. He publicly criticized the bill, calling it a "disgusting evil" that would lead to the bankruptcy of the United States. 

Trump's response touched Musk's bottom line: Trump said Musk opposed the "Big Beautiful Bill" because the electric vehicle subsidies were cancelled. The fact is that Musk never mentioned the electric vehicle subsidies to Trump from the first day. He originally believed that subsidies were not market-oriented behavior, Tesla could not survive on subsidies, and helping to cut government budgets was beneficial to the country in the long run - he was willing to give up commercial interests for this. Therefore, Musk was mainly driven by ideals, but not by self-interest. His political participation hurt his own economic interests. On the contrary, Trump's various politics and policies have proved that he is truly driven by self-interest and regards politics as a money-making machine. As the saying goes, "A gentleman can be killed but not humiliated." Musk felt that Trump's remarks were "judging a gentleman by his own meanness." The great belittling, denigration and humiliation of him, of course, further angered him. He thought to himself that he had invested so much money in Trump and paid such a huge personal reputation and business price, but he didn't even have basic gratitude and respect. 

Therefore, for Musk, the "Big Beautiful Bill" touches on fundamental principles and ideology, and concerns the future "survival" of the United States, as well as his original intention and vision of joining the Trump camp. After various events in the past few months, Musk has been silently "deducting points" from Trump. At this time, he finally deducted Trump to zero points, or even negative points, and by this time, their political separation is inevitable. At this time, the public quarrel between the two has "hurt feelings" and shaken the foundation. With the strong personalities of the two people, it is difficult to reach a reconciliation at this time-even if they make concessions on the surface and make a truce gesture (even the two hug in the Oval Office)-everything is not enough to resolve the existing contradictions and resentments.

In this incident, Musk was actually the first to attack. Trump has been on the defensive and has shown a forbearing attitude. After all, he knows Musk's status as a big moneymaker and owner of a social media platform, and knows Musk's long-term influence on American politics. He doesn't rely on Musk himself, but his political staff, party members, his successor, and his family also have to rely on Musk, or they should not offend Musk. Therefore, for all the previous disputes, including Musk's attacks on Trump's staff, Trump has shown a willingness to compromise and has been trying to be tolerant. Musk also kept his mouth shut at the beginning and stopped at attacking Trump himself. But now, this boundary has been broken. Musk began to attack Trump himself. Deep down, he is not afraid of Trump at all. 

Many American observers who are familiar with the personalities of Trump and Musk have accurately predicted that if Trump and Musk break up, it will most likely be done in the most violent way, with the conflict spiraling out of control, and the process will be extremely dramatic and "spectacular", and will lead to changes in the entire American political situation. Let us wait and see.

Here is some analysis of what the next evolution might look like.

Next step

1. Musk: He has launched a survey on X, asking whether it is possible to form a "new party that represents 80% Americans". More than 80% netizens clicked "support". Obviously, Musk is not satisfied with both the Republican and Democratic parties, and hopes to find and even organize new political forces - politicians from the Republican and Democratic parties can play a role within the original two platforms, or form a new party. Considering the disappointment of the American people with establishment politics and their dissatisfaction with Trump's corruption, it is not impossible to form a new party. In the UK and Germany, new parties independent of the traditional establishment have emerged and gained a place on the national political stage.

2. Musk’s business empire. It mainly involves two aspects, one is the business level and the other is the political level.

First, let's talk about the political level. If Musk becomes the leader against Trump after "changing the flag", he may be able to win back the original liberal consumer group. But considering that he supported Trump and has a "stain" on him, he needs to "make up for his mistakes". First, he needs to prove that he is a person driven by vision and values, because he "misjudged the wrong person" and "got on the wrong boat". Next, he needs to change his ways, turn over a new leaf, and become a new person. Second, he needs to speak with actions, launch an unprecedented attack on Trump, fund anti-Trump political movements, and expose more scandals as an "insider", further disintegrate Trump's personality, and impact Trump's political base. Third, he needs to get rid of some ideologically extreme, controversial, redundant and unnecessary things, such as white supremacy (Nazi gestures). If he does this. He may be able to win back the original consumer group and even rekindle Americans' enthusiasm for electric vehicles (which has now dropped to a low point). In addition, in Europe, he needs to downplay political involvement, not support Europe's populist right-wing parties, and regain the trust of Europeans. To put it bluntly, Musk has to prove himself politically and re-align himself with his traditional consumer groups (mostly left-wing) politically. However, Trump will still be in power in the United States for the next three years, and a direct war with the Trump administration will certainly not be conducive to Musk's business empire - he will not be able to obtain government contracts, and he can't expect to see any regulatory policies that are favorable to him.

The problem at the business level is even more complicated. As an individual, Musk has limited time and energy. If he devotes himself to the political struggle with Trump, he will have no time to run his business empire. The most important thing he should do now is to stay away from politics, return to business, and concentrate on business first. Yesterday, Tesla's stock price fell by 14%. Investors are not only worried about the company being subject to stricter and hostile supervision, but they may be more worried about whether Musk can focus on business. If Musk cannot focus on business, then even if he turns over politically, Tesla will not be able to turn over - because Tesla's products and technologies have fallen behind.

Trump: Trump sees politics as a reality show (refer to the author's article "The essence of TV "reality shows" and Trump's politics”, and conflict and reversal are the essence of reality shows. So he is not afraid of conflict itself, but may see opportunities in conflict. Trump has always been combative, intolerant of others, and especially hates betrayal. But he has always been "lenient" with Musk because he knows Musk's business ability, wide influence, political value as a Republican donor and media supporter, and the fact that Musk is decades younger than him. He knows that the future belongs to Musk - his successor and Republican party members must be favored by Musk in the long run. Therefore, even Trump has to give Musk three points. Moreover, on a personal level, he likes Musk and thinks that Musk is a childish high-IQ genius ("a genius from 90%, a child from 10%"), so he is quite tolerant of Musk. If Musk stops attacking Trump, is willing to give Trump a way out, re-acknowledges Trump's correctness and greatness, expresses loyalty to Trump, and acknowledges Trump's leadership, then Trump may still forgive Musk - he has also forgiven many people who have attacked him (including JD Vance and Tucker Carlson) - as long as they are willing to bow down to Trump and express loyalty, they can still "pass" - at least in terms of face. But to be accepted by Trump again, they have to make greater efforts: they have to deeply review their past betrayals and kiss King Trump's boots in public. For Musk, this is difficult. It can be predicted that Musk will maintain and increase his offensive against Trump (posting on X every day), while Trump will be on the defensive. It is difficult to judge how big Trump will fight back at present. He has many ways to make Musk feel uncomfortable, such as revoking Musk's government contracts, investigating Musk's drug abuse, and making a fuss about Musk's Chinese connections. But Trump is more likely to be on the defensive and let the people around him make the effort. In any case, the prospect of reconciliation between the two is very slim.

4. Republican politicians: Now, everyone is in pain, and they are immediately forced to choose between Trump and Musk (trying to remain silent is also a kind of "choosing sides", that is, "not choosing sides" is equal to "choosing sides"). Today, every Republican has to consider his or her position in the "post-Trump" era, which is related to his or her own future. Trump represents the "now" (the next three and a half years), and Musk represents the "future" (the next few decades). Many people's private policy views and values are actually closer to Musk, but they are unable to express their views due to Trump's powerful power. But as long as Musk takes the lead and has private support, politicians will secretly approach Musk. This will start a new round of political reorganization - it may not appear in the public eye, but the seeds have been planted.

5. MAGA base. MAGA base refers to the middle- and low-income white people in the United States. MAGA has been skeptical of Musk from the beginning. It is difficult for ordinary people to associate with this Silicon Valley billionaire. Their interests are more about populist issues such as anti-big business and anti-big capital. They suspect that Musk is a speculator who joined the MAGA revolution at the last minute. They are skeptical of Musk's business empire and technological vision (from electric cars, artificial intelligence, humanoid robots to immigration to Mars). They are wary of Musk's globalist agenda (such as Musk's connection with China). They lack an intuitive feeling for the fiscal conservatism advocated by Musk. Musk has never been a good public communicator. At this time, the majority of the MAGA camp must be in a wait-and-see state. Since they have no natural liking for Musk. They have always been suspicious of big capital, so they can easily believe Trump's statement that Musk stood on the opposite side because of commercial interests-the cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies. In the end, it depends on the voice of MAGA opinion leaders. At this time, everyone is probably making responsible calculations.

1) MAGA spiritual leader Stephen Bannon has always been highly anti-Musk, although he is similar to Musk on certain issues (such as fiscal conservatism). But he will definitely increase his opposition to Musk to prove to the world that Musk has always been a threat to the MAGA movement.

2) Tucker Carlson: This person is actually very independent. His political views are close to the MAGA base (real MAGA). He retains his own views on major issues, including implicit criticism of Trump. In the future, he should join forces with JD Vance. His subsequent statement on this matter is the real vane.

3) Joe Rogan: Strictly speaking, he cannot be considered a MAGA fan, but he has a huge influence on the straight male group. He is also relatively independent. If Musk comes out to testify about Trump's political corruption, Joe Rogan will probably support Musk.

4) Laura Loomer, a very influential MAGA influencer, but she is a mindless supporter of Trump. She firmly supports Israel and is against Islam, while Musk does not actually support Israel (and the current X is full of anti-Israel and anti-Semitic remarks). For this reason alone, she cannot support Musk. She may become the anti-Musk voice on the stage.

But the most important person in it is JD Vance, because he is the most likely successor to Trump.

6. JD Vance. JD Vance has always been considered the most solid and resilient link between MAGA and the tech right. He has found a very comfortable zone in the middle, where he can communicate with Trump, establish a psychological connection with the MAGA base, take the lead in promoting cutting-edge technology fields such as artificial intelligence, and take the lead in rectifying large platform companies (splitting Meta and Google), while sharply criticizing elite universities in the United States. He is in a very special position. The next step is very critical. It can be predicted that he will definitely publicly support Trump, participate in mediating the conflict between Trump and Musk (both externally and internally, externally downplaying the conflict between the two, and internally trying to participate in mediation), and find a position for himself. Among all politicians, he is the one who needs to consider his future the most, because he is already the vice president and is regarded as the successor. He must handle the relationship with Trump, the MAGA base, and the big money Musk. This poses an unprecedented political challenge to him. And JD Vance's attitude can also be regarded as a weather vane.

7. Democrats: They have been waiting for this moment for a long, long time. Because Trump and Musk had many conflicts before, but their relationship was still maintained, the media once lowered their expectations of a rift between the two, and even believed that even if Musk faded out of Washington due to political differences, he could still maintain his personal relationship with Trump. Therefore, the public rift between Musk and Trump this time was a little beyond expectations. Next, some of them will wonder if they can win over Musk in some form. But this requires Democratic politicians to abandon their cultural left-wing agenda - awakening, DEI, etc., strengthen the judiciary, fight crime, oppose illegal immigration, and tolerate Musk's white-centrism, which is somewhat difficult. But many Democrats see an opportunity, and let's see who can take the lead.

8. The competition issue of social media. Musk has X. Trump has been maintaining his own truth social. He posts all important information on truth social. He only posts X occasionally, just for the sake of showing it. He may not post X much in the future. But in fact, not many people use truth social. Everyone knows that this is Trump's own mouthpiece, serving him alone. As long as he leaves, this platform will be over. The social media in the political field in the future will still be X. And Musk completely dominates X. If he slightly adjusts the algorithm, limits the flow of Trump, or adjusts Grok, it will have a huge impact on the public opinion ecology.

9. Tech right. The tech right joined the Trump camp and Musk’s promotion has a lot to do with it (see “Four Types of People in the American Tech Right”), and Musk is an opinion leader in the tech right. In the future, Musk will definitely spare no effort to attack Trump in his circle. The tech right may not abandon the Republican Party, but it may abandon its personal support for Trump and turn to other candidates. In addition, the Silicon Valley bigwigs (Zuckerberg, Bezos, Cook, etc.) who approached Trump only after his election had a very short honeymoon with the Trump administration, but because of the trade war and the anti-monopoly measures promoted by the Trump administration against large technology companies, they have a tense relationship with Trump. And MAGA opinion leaders such as Stephen Bannon will escalate their attacks on large technology companies in the future, emphasizing the populist nature of MAGA. It can be judged that Musk’s departure will greatly weaken the political marriage between Silicon Valley and Trump and MAGA.

10. China. Musk has deep business ties with China and has expressed his approval of China in various public occasions (including its system, governance model, infrastructure, technology companies, technology, etc.). It can be judged that the Trump camp will intensify its attacks on Musk's ties with China, and the China connection will become Musk's "liability" in American politics. This also shows that today, in American politics, the alliance between capital and politics is weak and changeable - if you bet on Musk and influence the Trump administration through Musk, you will be in a completely passive position at this time.

The above is a preliminary analysis of the split between Musk and Trump. This is a vivid example of the interaction between American capital and politics.

The article comes from the Internet:Musk and Trump's public spat