Trump and Musk fall out over the "Big Beautiful Bill" - Cryptocurrency falls in response | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: June 2-June 6, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is 3.34 trillion US dollars, of which BTC accounts for 61.55%, or 2.06 trillion US dollars.Stablecoin market cap is $249.1 billion, the increase in the last 7 days was 0.72%, of which USDT accounted for 62.05%.

This week, the price of BTC fluctuated in a range, and the current price is $103,655; the price of ETH fluctuated in a range, and the current price is $2,481.

CoinMarketCap Among the top 200 projects, a small part rose while the majority fell, including: SKY 7-day increase of 10%, LA 7-day increase of 183.83%, MASK 7-day increase of 47.53%, ANIME 7-day increase of 37.33%.

This week, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$130.8 million; the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was US$280.8 million. 

The Fear & Greed Index on June 6 was 46 (lower than last week), and the sentiment this week was: 7-day neutral.

Market Forecast:

Stablecoins continued to increase this week, and the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow, continuing the trend of last week, while the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow. Both BTC and ETH remained range-bound. The RSI index was 49.59, neutral, and the altcoin seasonal index was 18. This week, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May were higher than expected, and the "small non-farm" employment index was the smallest increase since March 2023. The fear and greed index remained neutral.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.6%, and the rate cut is expected to start from Q3 this year. The market presents two situations: listed companies "rushing to buy BTC", and profit-makers and spot ETFs selling. If there is no major event/new liquidity influx, BTC will fluctuate around 100,000-105,000 US dollars next week. You can pay attention to the progress of the relationship between Sichuan and Ma.

Understand now

Review of the week's major events

1. On June 2, according to Cointelegraph, at the ETHGlobal Prague conference, Ethereum founder Vitalik said that Ethereum will expand the scale of L1 by about 10 times within a year and then "take a breath" before the next leap;

2. On June 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking comments on whether to amend the rules to allow the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund to conduct physical creation and redemption;

3. On June 3, according to a late night report by South Korea's JTBC TV station on the 3rd, Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, was elected President of South Korea. Lee Jae-myung had promised to promote the approval of crypto spot ETFs and proposed the issuance of a stablecoin based on the Korean won;

4. On June 4, documents showed that Trump's social platform Truth Social submitted an application for a Bitcoin ETF;

5. On June 4, according to Decrypt, Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joe Lubin said on Tuesday that his company is in talks with "major sovereign wealth funds and banks" in a "very powerful" country about possible construction based on Ethereum;

6. On June 4, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump and co-founder of WLFI, issued a statement to clarify that "The Trump Group has no connection with this wallet product (Magic Eden co-developed with TRUMP Meme). Eric Trump and I know nothing about it. Please stay tuned - World Liberty Financial, which we have been working hard to promote, will soon launch our official wallet."

7. On June 5, CoinDesk reported that stablecoin issuer Circle completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange at $31 per share, exceeding the original expected pricing range ($24-26), raising $1.1 billion and valuing $6.2 billion. The stock code is "CRCL" and will start trading on Thursday. The IPO was originally planned to issue 24 million shares, but was expanded to more than 34 million shares due to surging demand. USDC, issued by Circle, is the second largest stablecoin in the United States. Its listing comes at a time when U.S. lawmakers are pushing for a stablecoin regulatory bill;

8. On June 5, YZi Labs announced its investment in OneKey. OneKey is a company focused on improving theSafetyAn open source hardware wallet project that is innovative and enables global users to manage their assets independently;

9. On June 5, the Federal Reserve Beige Book said that the U.S. economy has declined in the past six weeks, the pace of hiring has slowed, and consumers and businesses are worried about tariff-related price increases. In terms of inflation, the report said that prices are "mildly rising", but there is a general expectation that costs and prices will rise at a faster rate in the future;

10. On June 5, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump seemed to have lost patience with Musk after Musk slammed the Republican Party's massive tax and spending bill. At the same time, Musk was annoyed by Trump's decision to withdraw the nomination of an important ally to lead NASA. A senior White House official said Trump was unhappy with Musk's decision to denounce the bill he signed, saying the president was confused by Musk's decision to step up his criticism after working closely with him for four months. The official said Trump's senior advisers were caught off guard by Musk's latest offensive.

Macroeconomics

1. On June 4, the U.S. ADP employment in May recorded 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, and the market expected 110,000;

2. On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, marking the seventh consecutive rate cut. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4% respectively;

3. On June 6, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%;

4. On June 6, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in May were 139,000, which was expected to be 130,000. The previous value was revised from 177,000 to 147,000.

5. On June 7, according to official data from the People's Bank of China, China's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces (about 2,296.37 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) from the previous month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increase in gold holdings.

ETF 

According to statistics, during the period from June 2nd to June 6th,US Bitcoin Spot ETF Net FlowsOutflow: $130.8 million; As of June 6, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $23.208 billion, currently holds $19.327 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.137 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $128.868 billion.

US Ethereum Spot ETF Net FlowRevenue: US$280.8 million.

Predicting the future

Upcoming Events

1. NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025;

2. Permissionless IV will be held in New York, USA from June 24 to 26, 2025;

3. EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30 to July 3, 2025;

4. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 2 to 4, 2025;

5. The Hong Kong stop of the "OpenLedger China Tour" will be held on June 13 (Friday) from 18:30 to 21:30. This series of activities will successively enter five cities (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu).

Project Progress

1. Skate, a chain designed to connect all VMs, was released on X on June 9th with a promotional video, which seems to hint at the TGE date;

2. Base ecosystem social prediction market Upside is scheduled to go online on June 10.

Important Events

1. Circle freezes 58 million USDT related to the Libra scandal. Crypto law firm Burwick Law said it has applied for a temporary restraining order in the Federal Court for the Southern District of New York and has been approved. It plans to hold a preliminary injunction hearing on June 9;

2. French Hill, Chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, has set the date for reviewing the House Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill as June 10.

Token unlock

1. GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on June 9, worth approximately $4.33 million, accounting for 1.43% in circulation;

2. Vana (VANA) will unlock 14.8 million tokens on June 12, worth approximately $94.48 million, accounting for 12.33% in circulation;

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on June 13, worth approximately $12.72 million, accounting for 1.23% in circulation;

4. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens on June 15, worth approximately $21.59 million, accounting for 1.63% in circulation;

5. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on June 15, worth approximately $42.61 million, accounting for 2.25% in circulation;

6. Horizen (ZEN) will unlock 810,000 tokens on June 15, worth approximately $8.28 million, accounting for 3.89% of the circulating supply.

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Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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