HTX DeepThink: A liquidity window appears. After returning to $100,000, what is the next step for Bitcoin?

HTX DeepThinkHuobi HTX is a crypto market insight column created with great effort, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data and crypto industry hot spots, injecting new thinking power into the market, and helping readers "Finding order in chaos”.

In last week'sHTX DeepThinkIn the column,HTX ResearchChloe (@ChloeTalk1) Combined with macro data, it is predicted that a liquidity window may appear in early May, and funds will flow back into the crypto market; on the evening of May 8, Bitcoin returned to $100,000 after a lapse of 3 months, and Ethereum also broke through the $2,000 mark, confirming the judgment of analysts. How long can this upward momentum last? What is the significance of the latest tariff agreement reached between the United States and the United Kingdom? In this special additional chapter of HTX DeepThink, Chloe will bring new interpretations.

The symbolic significance of New Hampshire and Texas pushing for “Bitcoin National Strategic Reserve” legislation

On May 7, New Hampshire officially became the first state in the United States to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, authorizing the state treasury to purchase BTC through spot ETFs or the market. Texas SB 21 has completed all committee deliberations and is expected to enter a final vote in the next three weeks. This meansBitcoin is officially included in the perspective of "sovereign assets", which has the status of partially replacing national debt and gold; at the same timeLocal government-led BTC purchase mechanism may be replicated in 10-15 Republican states, providing medium- and long-term buying support for spot ETFs and on-chain markets.

This is extremely critical for market signals—Even though the federal government is still on the sidelines, the state government has already started the institutional project of BTC reserve.

The US and the UK reach a tariff agreement, sending a signal of "de-risking"

On May 8, the United States and the United Kingdom reached a breakthrough agreement on trade tariffs, including the opening of tariffs on U.S. agriculture by the United Kingdom in exchange for a reduction in U.S. auto tariffs; tariffs on British steel and aluminum exports to the United States were reduced to 0.%; the United States retained the 10.% "reciprocal tariff" framework for imports from the United Kingdom. Although the United Kingdom actually has a trade deficit in goods with the United States, the actual economic significance of the agreement is not great, but it has released room for easing. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick also said that he hopes the next trade agreement to be announced is aA big country from Asia, which showsThe Trump administration is willing to release structural benefits on trade.

Bitcoin's market pricing structure is transitioning from "volatility trading logic" to "structural capital allocation logic"

As the policy easing signals are gradually released, the structure of Bitcoin capital flows has also undergone profound changes. In the past three weeks, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached US$5.3 billion, setting a single-quarter peak since its listing. This inflow is not dominated by the retail end, but is mainly based on institutional actions such as the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund, the Swiss National Bank's increase in MicroStrategy shares, and the increase in BlackRock ETF holdings. This indicates that the market pricing structure of Bitcoin is transitioning from "volatility trading logic" to "structural capital allocation logic." In this process, BTC is no longer a vassal of risky assets, but has gradually established its own independent capital flow ecology, becoming a "supranational asset" between gold and US bonds in the eyes of some investors.

At present, there are no signs of "frenzy rise" in the market. The implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin options is stable at 50% to 55%, which is much lower than the 80% or above that is common at the top of the historical bull market. The open interest of CME Bitcoin futures is about 14.8 billion US dollars, which is lower than the peak of 20 billion US dollars when Trump was elected in 2020. The 10-year US Treasury yield has repeatedly failed to reach 4.60% and currently remains at around 4.40%. Comprehensively judging, as long as the US Treasury yield does not rise above 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate and consolidate between US$105,000 and US$115,000, waiting for the next round of breakthrough opportunities.

Potential risks: China-US, Europe-US trade negotiations may intensify tariff wars

However, we need to be alert to the risk that trade negotiations between China and the United States and Europe and the United States may not go smoothly. US President Trump has made it clear that he will not lower the high tariffs of 145% imposed on China in order to restart trade negotiations with China. In addition, the European Commission's Trade and EconomicSafetyCommissioner Šefčović said that if the EU-US negotiations on tariffs fail, the EU will be ready to take retaliatory measures to rebalance bilateral trade relations. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on US goods worth about 100 billion euros. These potential escalations in trade frictions could have a negative impact on global market sentiment, which in turn would put pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin.

"HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos"

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any investment product.

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