A Survival Guide to the Current Crypto Market: Why Is Everyone Losing Money?

author:RVM

Compiled by: Xiaobai Navigation Coderworld

In the virtual world of RuneScape, the wilderness was once a zone full of dangers and opportunities, and one of the most notorious strategies was called "luring." This strategy exploited the trust and greed of players and used fakeSafetyThe promise or lucrative rewards lure unsuspecting players deep into the wilderness - a high-stakes player-versus-player (PVP) zone.

Specifically,TrapperThey will disguise themselves as friendly allies, offer seemingly generous help or rewards, and carefully design plots to lower the victim's vigilance. Once the victim enters the wilderness, the disguise will be torn off, the trapper will reveal his true face, launch an ambush, plunder the victim's belongings, and ultimately leave the victim with nothing.

This strategy, which exploits psychological manipulation and human weaknesses, is an early example of the weaponization of social dynamics in virtual environments. It reminds us that the so-calledSafetyPromises or opportunities that guarantee profits often hide unequal traps, which ultimately result in the initiator making a profit while the participants bear the losses.

Market Status

Deep in the Wilds I @Darkfarms1

Decentralized liquidity and ephemeral narratives

• Projects andBlockchainExcess

  As the crypto market expands, more and moreBlockchain, protocols andTokenEmerging, traders’ attention is distracted. New projects emerge in endlessly, each trying to attract capital through the “hot” narrative.

• Fast liquidity rotation

  Market funds move from one "hot spot" to another at a very fast speed. Once a narrative loses its appeal, investors will quickly turn to other opportunities. This phenomenon causes prices to rise sharply in the short term and then fall back quickly, and many traders are trapped before they can make a profit.

Key conclusions: Too many competing projects and limited funding make it difficult for any single narrative to sustain a long-term upward trend.

Overlapping interests and divided market sentiment

• Interest-driven opinions (KOL)

  KOLs often promote projects based on their own interests. Discussions on social media are more dominated by those who try to push up their own positions, which further exacerbates the fragmentation of market narratives.

• Conflicting market signals

  Market sentiment is split: although some macro indicators show a positive trend, retail investors are generally losing money and are extremely negative. This contradictory situation has exacerbated market volatility.

Key conclusions：Due to the inconsistency of interest drivers, the market has become more divided, and even originally trusted voices may turn from bullish to bearish, or vice versa, at any time due to their own interests.

Bitcoin Exclusive Trading and the Illusion of Altcoin Season

• Plan ahead for Bitcoin

  In this round of crypto market cycle, traders who accurately grasped the rise of Bitcoin have been richly rewarded. However, many retail investors who were looking forward to the arrival of the altcoin season were caught off guard and failed to achieve their wishes.

• The risks of retail investors seeking high returns

  Due to the large market value of Bitcoin and limited potential gains, retail investors often choose to avoid Bitcoin and try to find the "next big hit". However, many people put their money into small altcoins, only to find that the expected altcoin season has not really arrived.

Key conclusions：Bitcoin's rise mainly benefits experienced traders, while retail investors who tried to make huge profits through altcoins were disappointed by the absence of altcoin season.

Solana vs Ethereum Meme Battle: The Dilemma of Liquidity Dilution

• Meme Mania:Pump.fun The rise of

  picture Pump.fun Such platforms have spawned a large number of memes and attracted the attention of retail investors.TokenIts popularity relies more on hype and virality on social media than on any real value.

• The Nature of Meme: Speculation or Scam?

  Meme price increases usually rely on continued market attention and continuous injection of liquidity. Many investors know that this is a game of who buys faster, forming a short-term price bubble.

• Ethereum: The former king of memes

  In the 2021 bull market, Ethereum became the main battlefield of Meme with the NFT craze; in early 2024, Memes such as $PEPE and $MOG also performed well relative to Bitcoin, bringing rich returns to early participants. However, as the market tended to fluctuate sideways before Trump's election, most of the upward momentum was consumed. By mid-2024, there are few opportunities for "easy profits" in the market, and today's Meme traders are facing the following challenges:

1. Professional players’ entry——The meme market, which currently has a market value of billions of dollars, has been dominated by experienced traders and algorithmic market makers, greatly reducing the profit margins for ordinary investors.

2. Pressure from high valuations——The market value of Meme is generally high, and the possibility of a significant increase in the future is very slim.

Key conclusions：无论是 Solana 还是 Ethereum 生态系统，都充斥着大量微型市值代币，这些代币争夺有限的资金，进一步稀释了市场流动性。早期阶段的“捡钱”机会已经过去，如今的市场更加复杂，主要由专业交易者掌控。

Hyperliquid and the pursuit of excess returns

• Airdrops and speculation

  Hyperliquid has attracted a large number of active traders and capital inflows with its generous airdrop policy and innovative product features. However, the influx of large amounts of capital has also spawned high-risk speculative behavior, leading to increased market volatility.

• Most traders face losses

  According to the PnL (profit and loss) data on the platform,Xiaobai NavigationMost short-term traders have failed to make money on Hyperliquid, especially when chasing hype. Although the platform provides many innovative opportunities, frequent participation in meme or high-risk asset trading often increases the risk of loss.

Key conclusions: Even on innovative platforms, aggressive speculation is still a “zero-sum game”, where one party gains while another party loses. Traders frequently switch between tokens, trying to chase high returns, but these gains often disappear quickly under the competition of professional players.

PVP Game: The Battle Between Retail Investors and Big Players

• Disadvantages of information asymmetry

  Insiders and institutional investors are often able to take the lead and even have insider information that ordinary investors cannot obtain. However, retail investors usually buy in after the price has risen sharply, missing the most favorable time window.

• “Shelf Effect” and Market Manipulation

  The so-called “listing effect” refers to the fact that tokens areexchangeThe phenomenon of a surge in prices after the announcement of a launch. This trend further exacerbates the advantage of insiders - they can buy at low prices before the announcement, while retail investors buy at high prices.

Key conclusions：The crypto market is essentially a high-risk "player versus player (PVP)" arena. Big players take advantage of information asymmetry and advance layout to make profits, while ordinary investors often become victims.

The expansion of copycats and the impact of Trump tokens

• Liquidity is diverted to new tokens

  The launch of the Trump and Melania tokens is a vivid example of how new tokens can siphon remaining liquidity from an already weak market.

• Retail investors become the takers

  Like many token offerings driven by market frenzy, insiders reaped most of the gains during the token craze, while late retail investors were left stranded. This phenomenon further exacerbated the market’s pessimism, and many investors began to lose confidence in the market.

Key conclusions：As market liquidity gradually dries up and new tokens are launched endlessly, the losses of ordinary investors are further magnified, and the market falls into a negative cycle of "no one is willing to take over".

Future market trends

• Possibility of rebound

  Although the altcoin market currently looks bleak, the institutionalization of Bitcoin still brings some hope. At the current price of $105,000, $BTC still maintains a strong upward trend. If the government or major regulators release more supportcryptocurrencysignal, which could reignite the bullish sentiment in the market.

• Be cautious about future market conditions

  If market liquidity picks up and enthusiasm reappears, investors need to remain highly vigilant. The current market is still dominated by professional trading teams and insiders, competition is extremely fierce, and ordinary investors face a great disadvantage.

• Short-term operations are moreSafety

  In a market characterized entirely by PVP (player vs. player), it is safer to choose a quick entry and exit strategy rather than relying on long-term trends. The days of easy profits by simply buying and holding Meme (such as early 2024) are history, at least in the current market environment.

Key conclusions：If the macro environment improves and attracts more new funds, the market may usher in a more positive atmosphere. However, investors still need to act cautiously, fully realize the PVP characteristics of the current market, and avoid excessively chasing short-term hot spots.

Deep Wilderness – Caution is key

Final Thoughts

currentcryptocurrencyA notable feature of the market is the high degree of dispersion of capital and attention.Such a market environment, coupled with the strong influence of insiders and rapidly changing market hotspots, makes it more difficult for ordinary retail investors to gain an advantage. Although there may still be opportunities for large fluctuations in the future - especially if the macroeconomic environment is favorable to Bitcoin - investors need to focus on strategic and strict risk management when dealing with any market rebound and avoid blindly following the trend.

Practical advice:

1. Set reasonable expectations——The era of easily earning 10 times the profit may be over.

2. cautiousDiversification——Don’t spread your funds too much across multiple popular tokens, as it will be difficult to manage risks centrally.

3. Stay flexible——Shortening the holding time and locking in profits in time will help you stay invincible in the fiercely competitive PVP market.

4. Select quality projects——Focus on projects that have real value or solid foundation, rather than blindly chasing market hype.

In general, “everyone canmake moneyThe era of "is a thing of the past". Today's market is more cruel, and information advantages are in the hands of a few people.But as long as smart investors remain highly cautious and are good at discovering real opportunities, they will still be able to find room for profit in this complex market environment.

The article comes from the Internet:A Survival Guide to the Current Crypto Market: Why Is Everyone Losing Money?

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