Bitfinex: BTC may reach a peak of $290,000 in 2026

source:cryptoslate

Compile:Blockchainknight

According to the latest "Bitfinex Alpha" report, if BTC repeats the price trend during the 2017 bull run,It may peak at $290,000 by early 2026.

The forecast is based on historical price patterns during bull cycles, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators.

Following the bear market low in November 2022, BTC rebounded strongly in 2023, reaching a gain of 155.5%.

This momentum has continued into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year, with a year-to-date gain of 1,43%.

The current bull cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, fueled by the anticipation of BTC’s 2024 halving event, and historically, BTC halving events occurred before bull market years.

In addition, the report attributes the strength of this cycle to institutional buying pressure and the launch of U.S. spot BTC ETFs, which provide stable demand and limit the scale and duration of market corrections.

In the 2017 cycle, BTC's maximum correction was 33.2%, while in the 2020 cycle, BTC fell by 27.1%.

In the current cycle, BTC corrections have been more contained due to growing institutional interest, further enhancing the stability of the market.

The BTC Cycle Top Indicator is an important tool for predicting BTC price peaks. It has historically accurately marked cycle highs..

The indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and multiples of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).

In previous cycles, when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMAx2, BTC usually reaches a significant price peak.

The report emphasizes that if the cyclical pattern of 2021 repeats itself,Xiaobai NavigationSuch a crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025, or as late as January 28, 2026 if the 2017 extended cycle occurs.

According to historical performance, BTC's peak during bull runs is significantly higher than its moving average.

In 2017, BTC traded at three times its moving average peak value. However, as BTC matures, returns are diminishing, suggesting a more conservative price prediction.

According to Bitfinex's forecast, if BTC follows the trajectory of 2021, its price could rise 40% above the moving average to around $339,000.

but,Considering the lackluster returns, BTC could trade 15% to 20% above the moving average, reaching a peak of $160,000 to $200,000 by mid-2025.

Meanwhile, if there is a less likely chance that the 2017 cycle repeats itself, BTC could peak at around $290,000 by early 2026.

The report states that while historical indicators show that the most likely scenario is for BTC to peak at $160,000 to $290,000,But the path to those heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions..

The article comes from the Internet:Bitfinex: BTC may reach a peak of $290,000 in 2026

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