Written by: Qiao Wang

Compiled by: Xiaobai Navigation Coderworld

Since the beginning of this year, at least 5-10 startups I have worked closely with have turned tocryptocurrencyIrrelevant direction.

Pivots are normal for startups, and most of these companies pivot for valid reasons. For example:

• They have no growth and no idea of growth.

• They no longer get excited about what they are doing when they wake up.

但我想特别讨论的是从加密货币转型的想法。因为我相信几乎每个人都曾经想过这个问题，尤其是如果这是你经历的第一个熊市。

To be honest, I feel a little disappointed every time a founder walks away from crypto. But if the transition is indeed justified, I wish them the best of luck and would love to stay involved in their next journey if possible. However, there are some things to consider when you make a decision like this. The point of all this is not to tell you not to walk away from crypto, but to consider these factors in your decision-making process.

Bearish sentiment

The second half of the second year of a bear market is when sentiment bottoms out. I’ve talked about this many times on Twitter and on podcasts in the past because I’ve seen this happen not once, but twice.

I’m not sure why it’s always like this, why cryptocurrency cycles always last 4 years. Maybe it’s psychologically acceptable.Xiaobai NavigationReality always takes 1-2 years. Maybe people always need 4 years to forget the boom and bust of the last cycle and the lessons learned from the last cycle.

Regardless, this cyclical mood has become so predictable now that I will think critically about whether there is real substance behind my lack of conviction or if it is simply caused by emotion. I will try my best not to let emotion dictate my decisions.

Minimize regret

Everyone I know who left crypto during the last bear market regretted it. Everyone who tried to convince them to leave crypto during the last bear market became a laughing stock when the bull market came back. I have spoken about this in the past.

Now, this time may indeed be different, no one knows. But I will try to minimize the risk of regret. One way to do this is to give yourself a deadline to try all the good ideas in crypto before moving in other directions. “At least I tried”.

Non-linear growth

Many founders, especially those from FAANG, YC, or the traditional startup world, leave crypto because they expect the growth trajectory typically expected in Web2.

In fact, the growth trajectory of cryptocurrency products is rarely smooth. Instead, most products grow in steps. This is especially true for the more “native” cryptocurrency products. This is largely due to the cyclical nature of the overall market.

Now, you could say, “I don’t want to be dependent on an external factor that I can’t control, namely, the growth of cryptocurrencies as a whole”. This is certainly a valid point. However, the counter-argument is that every successful cryptocurrency company in history had to take this risk. Each of them had an unwavering vision for the future of cryptocurrencies. If Coinbase had given up on cryptocurrencies because they didn’t achieve 5% week-over-week growth, they would never have gotten to this point.

Discover the Secret

Part of building a startup is finding the secrets that no one else knows. In crypto, I’ve found that for founders new to crypto, it usually takes at least 1-2 years to “find that secret.”

Why did it take so long? Well, I guess because crypto is so counter-intuitive and so different from Web2 or TradFi (where most founders come from). Too many founders give up on crypto in less than 1-2 years, right before that critical moment.

Worse, a bear market can be the best time to find that secret. There are fewer bubbles and fewer distractions. Founders can think more clearly. They are more likely to find users who will also stick around for the long haul.

Unfair Advantage

Instead, to succeed in a new industry, founders need to know a secret that no one else knows.

So, before chasing after the new shiny thing, a key question to ask yourself is: “Do I have an edge in this new industry?” If the answer is no, then you’re probably better off staying in crypto, because after 1-2 years, you’ll already know a lot about crypto.

You now understand why cryptocurrencies are so important. You’ve built a strong network. You’re engaging with users on the ground all day long.

The article comes from the Internet:The pain of transition for crypto startups: In a bear market, should you stay or go?

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