French traders personally conducted polls behind their bold $30 million bet on Trump
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The US election is over, and the biggest winners besides Trump and Musk is the Frenchman Tho (pseudonym).
Before the election, ThocryptocurrencyFour anonymous accounts were used to place bets on the prediction platform Polymarket, with a total betting amount of more than $30 million, and it is expected to earn nearly $50 million.
Tho claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who worked as a trader at several banks and began using mathematical knowledge to analyze U.S. polls this summer.
The trader not only predicted that Trump would win the presidential election, but also bet that he would win the popular vote and several key swing states, including traditionally blue states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Tho dared to make such a bet, not just simply guessing that Trump would win,Xiaobai NavigationIt was because he personally took action and commissioned a polling organization to use the "neighborhood method" to conduct a survey, thus obtaining real poll data.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Tho’s betting strategy is mainly based on doubts about the accuracy of US poll data. He believes:
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Mainstream polls significantly underestimate Trump's support rate;
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There is a “shy Trump voter effect,” where some Trump supporters are reluctant to take a stand in polls;
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Traditional polling methods are biased, especially polls conducted by mainstream media, which tend to favor the Democratic Party;
To address these issues, Tho proposed using a "neighborhood poll," which asks respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He believes this method can more accurately reflect voters' true intentions because people may indirectly reveal their preferences when guessing their neighbors' voting tendencies.
Tho cited the results of several polls conducted in September 2023 that used the "neighbor method." These surveys showed that when neighbors were asked about their likely voting preferences, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's support rate was several percentage points lower than when respondents were asked directly about their own preferences. Tho believes this confirms that traditional polls have once again underestimated Trump's support rate.
Tho also revealed that he commissioned a major polling organization to conduct a survey to measure the "neighborhood effect", and the results were "shocking and favorable to Trump."
Tho claimed that he bet on Trump purely for profit and had absolutely no political purpose.
In addition, Tho has repeatedly criticized public opinion polls in the United States. He is particularly critical of polls conducted by mainstream media, which, in his opinion, are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce abnormal poll results that favor Harris.
Tho suggested that American polling organizations should also use the neighbor method in future surveys to avoid embarrassing mistakes again.
The article comes from the Internet:French traders personally conducted polls behind their bold $30 million bet on Trump
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