Is the Memecoin trend changing? Observing the shift in market sentiment for on-chain and exchange Memecoins

Written by: Kevin, BlockBooster Researcher

Murad described the super cycle of Memecoin, and he argued in a way familiar to VCs, including the prospects of altcoins, the turn of the crypto industry, and the shift in future trends:

• Defining the Memecoin Supercycle, spurning altcoins with daily revenues of only $500 but a valuation of $7 billion;

• Outlining the golden age of Memecoin comes at the cost of putting a final nail in the coffin of altcoins that have fallen to the bottom but were once full of bull market myths. "All altcoins are essentially Memecoins, just more complicated versions."

Murad's view may seem radical, and we have no intention of judging it, but what he mentioned, "Memecoin trading trends are changing," is worth further discussion. This article will use data analysis and take $MOODENG as an example to explore those areas that need to be established.CommunityThe development history of Memecoin in its early stages, which is a long-term investment, is analyzed, and the common characteristics of the top five Memecoins recommended by Murad are analyzed to objectively observe the new trends of Memecoin.

Review $MOODENG

Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo, was born on July 10, 2024, at the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Thailand and quickly became a celebrity after the zoo shared photos of his birth on its official Facebook page. Due to Moo Deng's growing popularity online, the zoo's average daily visitor numbers doubled in early September 2024.

There are currently three Memecoins related to Moo Deng: $MOODENG on Solana and Ethereum, and $HIPPO on Sui. The three launched tokens on September 10, September 15, and September 27, respectively.

First, let’s take a look at the common on-chain data of Solana $MOODENG:

The natural growth of the number of holders is rapid, and bots are waiting for opportunities to intervene

Total number of addresses of SOL $MOODENG increased

fromwalletLooking at the graph of total address growth, there are three notable periods of unusual activity:

• First, the number of addresses increased dramatically between September 16 and 18, jumping from 1,970 to 22,645;

• After three days of natural growth, there was an unusual drop between September 21 and 22, when the number of addresses decreased from 25,790 to 9,204;

• The second unusual surge occurred between September 29 and 30, when the number of addresses jumped from 28,344 to 49,502.

In addition, out of the current total of 52,413 addresses, 25,464 addresses have never sold their holdings since the initial purchase, with a diamond hand ratio as high as 48%.

SOL $MOODENG Diamond Hand Address Number

When we do a simple screening of the on-chain address holding levels, we can find that the $MOODENG holdings of the above abnormal addresses are all less than 100. When the natural growth was not as active as expected, the team quickly, massively, and linearly released nearly 20,000 addresses within three days, allowing the on-chain indicators of $MOODENG to trigger the alarm indicators of the chain-sweeping robot, while maintaining a stable upward channel in price, attracting market attention.

At the same time, we observe the following three charts, which show the holding of $MOODENGwalletTotal number of addresses, number of addresses holding 0.0005% $MOODENG (4,950 addresses, about $693 worth), number of addresses holding 0.005% (49,500 addresses, about $6,930), and number of addresses holding 0.05% (495,000 addresses, about $69,300). After filtering out bot addresses and raising the minimum holding threshold to 4,950 $MOODENG, we can see a clearer trend: the number of holders of small and medium positions continues to grow steadily, while large holders stop growing after the 21st.

Focusing on small positions, we can see that starting from September 16, the number of addresses soared due to a surge in new addresses. As the FOMO effect intensified, the natural growth of small positions accelerated further, reaching a peak on the 20th. When the team observed this steady natural growth, they removed the bot addresses that were launched between the 16th and the 18th. As the price of $MOODENG peaked on the 28th, the number of addresses began to decline, in sync with the price trend.

The growth of medium-sized positions slowed down after the 18th day, and the selling volume after the 28th day was larger than that of small-sized positions.

From September 28 to October 6, small positions decreased by 12.2%, medium positions decreased by 16.5%, and large positions decreased by 25.8%.

SOL $MOODENG Ladder address speed increase

The peak times of the three types of positions are also different: large positions reached their highest on September 21, medium positions peaked on September 27, and small positions reached their maximum number on September 28.

High concentration of chips

Further mining of the on-chain data of $MOODENG shows that after ignoring the interference of the top 10 holding addresses, the remaining top 5% holding addresses hold nearly 90% in circulation. Specifically, the top 5% addresses held 46% on the 10th, jumped to 71% on the 11th, and remained above 90% between the 21st and 24th. It is currently around 85%. Therefore, $MOODENG TokenThe holdings are highly concentrated.

Mature team operation

SOL $MOODENG Large purchases from a single address

The team has been buying since the token was issued until the 28th. As shown in the figure, the team accumulated a large number of chips in the first two days, especially on the 10th and 11th, and also achieved remarkable results in maintaining the K-line trend. Combining the above and below figures, we can intuitively see that the team made two strong price pushes on the 21st and 24th, with three days as a box, and rhythmically broke through the consolidation range.

SOL $MOODENG Price Chart

Compare Ethereum $MOODENG

用上文提到的指标来观察以太坊 $MOODENG 的链上数据我们可以发现，对于散户而言，在 Vitalik 出售wallet中的 $MOODENG 之前，人们已经对其失去兴趣，链上地址几乎没有增长，而团队也没有积极地去维护CommunityThis is a very common situation in imitation trading. In the 10 days before this, the total number of addresses did not increase at all, and the team had already given up.

Interestingly, as the price continued to fall during this period, addresses with medium-sized holdings chose to sellToken. From the 25th to the 5th, medium-sized positions have been sold to reduce losses. In contrast, retail investors' "buy and hold" strategy.

On October 5, with Vitalik's tweet, the FOMO sentiment on the ETH chain was ignited, causing a sudden surge in small holdings. Medium holdings also increased, but after reaching a peak on the 7th, many addresses began to sell, as did large holdings. From the chart above, we can see that large addresses started selling on the 5th, while medium and large addresses only started selling on the 7th. It is self-evident that the team is anxious to ship.

从筹码集中度来讲，ETH 链上 $MOODENG 代币的集中度并不像 SOL 链那样高，但自 5 日以来一直稳步上升，在 8 号达到 58.6% 的最高点。

Controlling the Token Holding Structure and Trend Pattern: A New Idea for Memecoin Marketing

$MOODENG on SOL did not conduct much KOL promotion. Instead, the team focused on promoting its own X account. Its core strategy is reflected in controlling the trend of tokens. While building the community, a large number of tokens were accumulated in the early stage, the chips were highly concentrated, and a breakthrough was achieved after multiple consolidation phases. In terms of price trend control and trading strategy, the ETH team pales in comparison. The SOL team successfully centralized and controlled 90% of tokens, while the ETH team only controlled 48%. However, controlling chips is commonplace for any Memecoin. This is not to say that controlling chips is not important, but what to do after controlling chips is the place to distinguish the superior and the inferior. In terms of expanding influence, today's Memecoin no longer relies on KOL promotion. For the team, the key is how to trigger these robots and platform indicators manually. If operated properly, these robots and platforms can become free marketing tools.

A look at Murad's top five Memecoins by market cap

Murad mentioned that when choosing Memecoin, the reference criteria are as follows: mid-market value between $5 million and $200 million; located in Solana and Ethereum; at least six months of history. These criteria can also be understood using the indicators mentioned above. In my opinion, they can be converted into two directions: the team's willingness to maintain the price; the degree of Fomo to stimulate users.

The former refers to the ability of the team/whale/community to maintain prices when prices fall, form a long period of stable consolidation, and strongly push prices when a breakthrough is needed. For Memecoin, it is difficult to continue to drive prices up by user sentiment alone, because no one can control the buying and selling behavior of retail investors. Therefore, for the team, attracting large holders or retail traders ultimately depends on their own price behavior on the token, especially during declines and breakthroughs. Therefore, the concentration of team/whale chips, to some extent, implies the willingness and determination of the team to take action at key price nodes. Of course, this process is also inseparable from the support of the community. For example, the price trend of $SPX is not strongly correlated with the team's actions. This is due to MuradXiaobai Navigation The latter can be analyzed from the increase in the number of users holding positions, and observing the changes in the top positions can guide us when to sell.

In terms of the dominance rate of top5%, the top five tokens recommended by Murad are all strong market makers, with the team and big investors controlling most of the chips. Among them, the concentration rate of $POPCAT and $GIGA exceeds 85%. The remaining three are also above 60%. The highly concentrated chip structure ensures that when the price pattern changes or breaks through, the price can follow the team's wishes to a certain extent and is not easy to collapse. For tokens with a small number of team holdings, you may see a sharp rise in price, but it will begin to collapse within 1-3 days, which is a greater test of the grasp of the timing of selling.

Among these five tokens, the ones that best reflect these two directions are $POPCAT, $MOG, and $SPX.

$POPCAT The most recent team intervention in the token form occurred on October 10th. In the previous week, on October 4th, the team did not significantly push the price to break through ath, but after 3 days of rising, retail investors began to sell. In 3 days, the selling volume did not decrease, but the daily price drop was around 5%. Therefore, on the 10th, the team bought a lot to keep the price in the rising channel. $MOG Similarly, the team's last three adjustments occurred in late September and early October. $MOG The current big trend is a six-month consolidation box, and the small trend is a more than one-month rising channel. When the price begins to approach the middle axis of the box, retail investors will sell. The closer to the upper edge of the box, the stronger the retail investors' selling sentiment. The team controlled the form at the price that was about to fall below the rising channel 3 times, showing that the team has a strong desire to maintain the trend and potential breakthrough hints. $POPCAT and $MOG both have obvious team/whale/banker manipulation behaviors, which give the market clear signals and gather upward momentum.

$SPX is different from the other two. It is one of the most fomo tokens in the market in September, so retail investors have a strong buying sentiment. As the price is accelerating through one upward channel after another, it does not require the team to intervene strongly in the token trend to maintain the amazing increase. Murad's amazing ability to bring goods has brought the retail Fomo level of $SPX to a high point.

exchange Memecoin at a Glance

Among the top 200 tokens, except for the 5 recommended by Murad, the remaining Memecoin’s main liquidity is inexchangeIn this cycle, the trends of Memecoin in the exchange are also different. According to the liquidity dominance rate and the duration of a single form, it can be indicated whether there will be a strong price performance after the breakthrough. Compared with this price performance and the Memecoin on the chain, which side is stronger?

Specifically, $Neiro and $TURBO both have very high dominance rates, and the main liquidity isBinance.whenBinanceWhen it has the vast majority of chips, it no longer needs to consolidate and absorb chips, and can drive the market immediately.

BRETT, MEW, and DOG are the remaining three tokens with high dominance rates, and they have also recently achieved a transformation or breakthrough. BRETT achieved a breakthrough in a 5-month downward channel, and MEW achieved a breakthrough in a 7-month downward channel, but because their liquidity is not in the mainstream exchanges, the trend after the breakthrough is not as strong as Memecoin listed above. After the breakthrough, DOG maintained an upward channel for a month.

Due to dispersed liquidity, some tokens failed to maintain the upward channel after breaking through, which is quite regrettable. For example, pepe, after breaking through the 7-month consolidation period, is currently in a 2-week sideways box, which is not very good compared with other hot Memecoins.

In addition, other Memecoins that have achieved price breakthroughs include Wif, Bome, DOGS and DOGE. Among them, Wif is in a 2-week rising channel, Bome is the latest to break out among the Memecoins led by Binance, and DOGE, like Bome, has broken out of a 7-month consolidation period. We look forward to their next trends. DOGS is still in a 3-month falling channel.

The remaining tokens that have been sideways for 7 months but have not achieved a breakthrough include SHIB, BONK, and MEME. The more false breakthroughs there are, the more likely it is that the token will not be able to break out of its own independent market trend, and it needs to rely on the market trend. It is suggested that you need to pay attention to the stop loss price when buying on the right side. People has been sideways for 4 months, and you also need to pay attention to the buying position when the price breaks through.

summary

The Memecoin craze is far from over, but altcoins are by no means worthless. Whether focusing on fundamentals can bring corresponding returns in this cycle is still an open question. This article introduces how to verify the common points of the development of hot Memecoin from on-chain data, hoping to provide you with one of the possible future trends of Memecoin.

The article comes from the Internet:Is the Memecoin trend changing? Observing the shift in market sentiment for on-chain and exchange Memecoins

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