After a comprehensive assessment, can Sui, who is currently in the limelight, replicate the momentum of Solana’s last bull run?

Written by: Frank, PANews

Facebook-based public chain Sui has attracted much attention recently. The most discussed Sui-related topic on social media is "SUI TokenIt seems to be replicating SOL2Many people believe that the recent rise of SUI is very similar to the startup phase before the last big rise of SOL, so it is inferred that Sui may become the next Solana.

Sui's mainnet will be launched in May 2023, while Solana's mainnet was launched in March 2020. There is a big gap between the current data of the two. However, from the perspective of growth potential, it is necessary to compare the performance of both parties during the same period. PANews compared the performance of Sui and Solana in July 2021, more than a year after they were launched. Although this method is a bit "carving a boat to find a sword", it can also provide an objective reference and comparison.

On-chain data: Sui is better than Solana in 2021

In order to make a clearer comparison of the data, we took Solana's data from around July 12, 2021. Sui's data was taken on September 24.

Judging from the on-chain data, Sui’s current data is generally better than Solana’s performance in 2021. In fact, although Solana in 2021Token SOL has experienced a huge increase, but the data of the ecosystem is obviously not impressive enough. Especially for the daily active users on the chain, Solana's daily active users in 2021 were basically in the range of tens of thousands of addresses, and it was not until 2022 that this data broke through more than 100,000. And this data of Sui has changed dramatically recently. Before April of this year, the daily active addresses on the Sui chain were similar to Solana in 2021, averaging tens of thousands of daily active users. After experiencing the "blessing" of SPAM spam in April, the number of daily active addresses on Sui's chain began to surge to more than one million, and even in the cold market stage in August, it remained above 400,000. Recently, it has ushered in a substantial increase again, and the number of daily active addresses has exceeded one million again.

Sui daily active address data

Solana Daily Active Address Data

In the argument of Sui bulls, one indicator that has been mentioned many times is that Sui's TPS peak can reach 297,000 transactions, while Solana's maximum peak is 65,000 transactions. However, judging from the current daily TPS, Sui's TPS data is still lower than Solana's data level in July 2021.

Looking at the chain as a whole, Sui’s activity is significantly better than Solana in July 2021, which does provide an argument for Sui to become the next Solana.

Social media influence: Sui lacks a "celebrity spokesperson"

生态的发展是一方面，在加密领域社交媒体的造势有时候似乎更能影响一个Token的价格。2021 年 Solana 迎来大幅上涨的一项重要原因离不开 FTX 创始人 SBF 的公开支持，Saber（Solana 上 2021 年增长最快的 DeFi 项目）的联合创始人 Dylan 和 Ian Macalinao 谈论他们为什么选择 Solana 时表示：「关注 SBF 有一段时间了，当时正在使用 FTX。从那里，我们看到 Solana 是一个很好的公链。」

In addition to the influence of SBF, the investment in Solana by A16z, an investment institution that was in the limelight in the crypto field at the time, also triggered the market's optimism about Solana. However, this is partly due to the views of capital. More details will be given later. In addition, in 2021, Solana also won the cooperation and support of many celebrities such as Mike Tyson, Michael Jordan, and Melania Trump. Therefore, in 2021, Solana became an out-and-out Internet celebrity public chain, and the argument that Solana will become the "Ethereum killer" was hotly hyped on social media, which is exactly the same as the current hype that Sui is the next Solana. Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner of Mechanism Capital, said in response to the comment, "I don't think SUI's market value will reach the level of SOL. Its current market value is only 3.5% of SOL, which sounds like...eth CommunityThe same arguments were made before and during the SOL outperformance.

In contrast, there are also many KOLs supporting Sui on social media today. In September, K33 Research analyst David Zimmerman said that Sui Network could become a strong competitor to Solana with its technological advantages and upcoming native game consoles.

However, Sui does not seem to have a "celebrity spokesperson" like SBF, but there are a large number of industry KOLs who post topics about watching Sui on social media.

Seizing the trend: Solana still occupies the main market of MEME

Seizing the trend is also the key to the success of a project. The trends in 2021 are NFT and DeFi, and Solana has received a lot of attention in the NFT trend. In this round of cycles, MEME is the biggest trend, which has made a huge contribution to the performance of on-chain data. Obviously, this trend has been occupied by Solana before. However, judging from recent data, the MEME market on Sui seems to have finally made progress. Recently, the number of new tokens added daily on Sui has finally exceeded 300, which has grown by leaps and bounds. Before September 10, the value of this data was only between 30 and 50. However, this data level is still far behind Solana (Solana chain still maintains 10,000 new tokens generated every day). Since it is impossible to find the new token generation data of Solana in 2021, it cannot be compared with Solana at that time.

In terms of transaction volume, on September 24, the 24-hour token transaction volume on Sui Chain was $95 million, while Solana’s was $1.1 billion. Solana currently still occupies an important position in MEME. Sui also faces competition from Base and Ethereum. L2, TON and other opponents.

Capital boost: Both come from the same school

Ultimately, capital support is also an important factor in the growth of token market value. Recently, capital support for Sui mainly comes from Grayscale. On September 13, the management scale of Grayscale Sui Trust exceeded 1 million US dollars. In addition, on September 17, Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said that USDC&CCTP was launched on Sui Network.

Looking back at Solana in 2021, in addition to providing influence on social media, FTX also gave Solana strong financial support. It is estimated that FTX and its related investment arm Alameda Research have invested more than $100 million in various companies and projects in the Solana ecosystem. And a16z injected $314 million in financing into Solana in June 2021. The strong binding with FTX has enabled Solana to have a large amount of funds to promote and boost prices.

Sui has not raised any funds recently (there are reports that OTC financing has been carried out, but it has not been confirmed). The last large amount of financing came from the $300 million financing in 2022. Interestingly, this financing was led by FTX Ventures, and the participating investors included a16z Crypto, Jump Crypto, Apollo, Binance Labs, Franklin Templeton, Coinbase Ventures, Circle Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Bixin Ventures, and A&T Capital. Many of these investors were also previous investors in Solana. However, in 2023, Sui's development company Mysten Labs paid $96 million to buy back shares from FTX.

Market performance: The market trend does have similar experiences

Returning to the core area of the current bullish sentiment, the token market, Sui's token has seen a sharp rise recently, from August 5 to September 23, it rose by 256% in 49 days, which is far better than other public chains.

Solana Market Trends in July 2021

Back to SOL in 2021, from July 20 to August 18, it rose by 264% in 29 days. The concentrated rise of the two at a certain stage does seem to have many similarities.

SUI market trend chart from August to September 2024

Currently, the circulating market value of SUI is about 4.1 billion US dollars, while the market value of SOL after the first round of increase has reached 18.7 billion US dollars. However, the supply of SUI is currently 26.8%, and SUI tokens will continue to be unlocked every month. SUI currently still has 21% tokens that have not been unlocked. Even if the circulating market value of these tokens is added, it is still less than the 18.7 billion US dollars after the first round of SOL increase in 2021.

Judging from the trading enthusiasm, SUI's current round of rise may be inseparable from the Korean market's enthusiasm.exchange Upbit currently accounts for about 7.21% of SUI's trading volume, becoming the largestBinance, Coinbase, OKX, SUI has the largest transaction volumeexchange.

整体来看，Sui 与 2021 年的 Solana 确实有着许多相似之处。相似的社交媒体论调，相似的性能优势，相似的投资机构等等。或许，Sui 可能成为下一个市场追捧的性能公链，但仍有几个问题是所有人要思考的，其一，Sui 并未实现 Solana 在 2021 年的一枝独秀效果，目前的 L1、L2 赛道强敌环伺，性能真的还能成为杀手锏吗？其二，Sui 的数据增长，往往呈现爆发式的增长，然后又经历大幅下跌，这种大起大落的链上数据是否真的能代表生态的活跃情况？其三，生态项Xiaobai NavigationAt present, there are no ecological DAPPs with wealth effects and breakthroughs like Solana in the last bull market, such as Raydium and MagicEden. Fourth, the token unlocking cannot be ignored. Of course, no one can predict the market, and the above analysis cannot be used as investment advice. Please be cautious.

The article comes from the Internet:After a comprehensive assessment, can Sui, who is currently in the limelight, replicate the momentum of Solana’s last bull run?

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