"Positive" and "negative" in the eyes of trading masters

Moderator: Joe Zhou, Deputy Chief Editor, Foresight News

Guests: Willy Chuang (WOO COO), Rocky (Blue Ocean Capital Co-Founder), Liang Li (WOO Product Manager), Phyrex (Data Bricklayer), Dachengzi

SeniorcryptocurrencyTraders will use a series of methods, such as positive pointing, reverse pointing,exchangeproducts to improve their trading efficiency.cryptocurrencyTraders, CryptoexchangeExecutives and KOLs come to share their understanding of cryptocurrency trading.

Moderator: Please introduce yourself and share the important experiences you have gained from trading in the last one or two crypto cycles.

Rocky:I am the co-founder of Blue Ocean Capital, a crypto fund focused on the Web3 secondary market. I personally went all in on the cryptocurrency world at the end of 2016. Before that, I was an analyst at Changjiang Securities. From the end of 2016 to now, I have basically experienced two complete cycles.

From the past two cycles, I have summarized several lessons and experiences. The first is to make money in the big cycle. In the whole big market cycle, the entire cryptocurrency is synchronized with the expectation of global monetary easing. What we enjoy is nothing more than the extra premium brought by loose liquidity, that is, to obtain greater speculative returns in the investment asset category.

There is a key factor in making money in the long cycle, that is, not doing swing trading. Swing trading can actually make people feel lucky. If a swing trading fails, you may lose all the money you made in the previous period, and finally fail. Sometimes you make several successful swing tradings and feel that you are very good, but in fact, it may be a one-sided market upswing. Speculators who chase ups and downs often have the lowest returns, because you are actually chasing ups and downs during the swing trading process. So in this case, you will actually have a dopamine pleasure, but in fact, in terms of returns, it is actually not as good as long-term holding.

The second point is that investment research is more important than trading, and thinking determines success or failure. We know that there is a saying that goes, "It is better to speculate on new things than on old things." The degree of investment research determines the probability of seizing early opportunities. Our core is to seize opportunities for rapid growth, especially when a new trend emerges. At this time, early investment research is particularly critical. Let me give you an example from our early cases, such as StepN running shoes. When they came out, the data was actually very good. Later, everyone knew that GMT belonged to the category of 100x coins. Including some projects that we have participated in in the recent cycle, we spent a long time finding RNDR in October of 22 years.Token, we have been constantly deploying around 0.5, and the position is still heavy. The highest price has risen to more than ten dollars, so now it has fallen back to 5 dollars, and the increase is still good. Another one is KAS, which we are most proud of. After the Ethereum POS upgrade, there were many graphics card mining machines left, and there was no place to mine at that time. Later, we spent a long time on investment research and found the KAS mining project. So investment research is actually very important, but many times people may spend a lot of time watching the market, reading group messages, and checking Twitter.

The third is to take profits. This is actually very important. As the saying goes, buying is the apprentice, and selling is the master. If you can't take profits, you will always be busy in the market. I personally experienced two serious roller coasters. I participated in ICO in 2017 but failed to cash out in time. I gave some money to my friends in the financial group to help me play ICO. At that time, I thought ICO was empty and had no real assets to support it, so I invested some money to let my friends help me play, and I didn't participate in person. But my friend made me about 4 times the profit in 2 months, and I resolutely resigned at the end of 2016. The most glorious time of this industry was probably during ICO. The asset inflation was quite terrifying. As long as you participated in the first level, the return on the line was basically 50 to 100 times. Unfortunately, at the end of 2017, I only cashed out a house and a car, so the rest returned to dust, and at the end of 2018, it basically fell back. The second time was on March 12. I remember that I bought 100 bitcoins at around 7,800. I thought that 1x leverage should be fine, but I still got liquidated. So don’t touch it.contract, don’t touch leverage, and don’t borrow money to speculate in cryptocurrencies.

Fourth, we need to grasp the core narrative. Each cycle has a core narrative. In this cycle, we have a very clear core narrative, such as AI, Depin, RWA, Bitcoin ecology including the latest Ton ecology, etc.

Willy Chuang:Hello everyone, I am Willy, COO of WOO. WOO has two products, one is centralizedexchange WOO X, and the second is the decentralized exchange WOOFi. WOO X has been in operation for more than 3 years, and WOOFi is now entering its second year. WOO X is positioned for professional traders. Currently, most of its users are from Europe. From the UI to our trading functions, we actually hope to help professional traders to perform better trading execution and experience. Our ecosystemToken：WOO is onlineBinance, OKX and most other mainstream exchanges, as well as local spot exchanges in Europe and the United States. WOOFi has two swaps, one is decentralizedcontract，一个是跨链交易，支持 11 条 EVM 链。这个月底我们就会做 Solana 的支持。我们的去中心化contract大约有 3 亿美金左右的日均交易量。

WOO is the ecosystem of WOO X and WOOFiToken, token economics is relatively mature in all aspects. We have been doing it for more than three years, but we have not done infrastructure, we have not built our own chain, and we have not done any work related to infrastructure. We have always hoped to make the application better, so we put our limited time and energy on the application level. In fact, you can see that the overall infrastructure has reached a state of oversupply, and homogeneous competition is becoming more and more serious. I personally think so. Maybe the so-called bull market is relatively short and relatively lacks stamina. This may have something to do with the macro economy, but from the perspective of the industry, there is some lack of stamina in narrative innovation, because homogeneous competition has led to a lot of airdrop points. The value chain has moved to the channel, not to the project itself. Issuing coins is becoming more and more difficult for project parties. In this round or even the next cycle, those project parties who can make the application better, make DeFi simpler, and have a better experience may eventually come out. We also hope to attract more new users through the trading experience of our products and our persistence in applications.

We recently launched Social Trading, social copy trading. Traders may be mostly right in their direction choices, but most traders have problems with execution rather than direction when trading cryptocurrencies. Our next copy trading product wants to solve several pain points. The first pain point is that we hope that professional traders who have been strictly reviewed on the platform can lead some users with insufficient trading experience to trade. The second pain point is transparency. In fact, many exchanges also have this product, but we have found that one problem is that the transparency is not high. For example, some traders may be long here and short on another platform. The copy trader can only follow one direction. So we saw the pain point and launched another product, reverse copy trading, which allows you to reversely follow all the positions of this trader.

Phyrex:The proportion of macro trends is getting bigger and bigger. From the end of 2021 to now, many friends have had a big change in their understanding of the macro. Now in the whole cycle change, we still have to look at the changes in liquidity. The largest liquidity is still based on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The second is to see where the main trend is. There may be some small narratives. It’s not a big problem if everyone doesn’t catch them. Then when a big narrative trend comes, we must be able to catch up, and then we can solve many problems. Next, on the one hand, we will look at the changes in liquidity, on the other hand, we will look at the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the third aspect may be to look at the US election cycle. After all, we know that Trump wants to win votes for cryptocurrencies now, so he has some promises. It doesn’t matter whether the promises can be fulfilled, but if he can become the new president with his promises, then it will be of great help to the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Liang Li:Hello everyone, I am a product manager at WOO. I worked at another large firm before. Before entering the cryptocurrency industry, I worked in the traditional financial industry for a long time in financial product and technology development. I entered the industry relatively late, probably one round later than the previous teachers. When we designed this product, we hoped to make it more reliable from the perspective of fairness and transparency, and bring real benefits to users.

Big Orange:Hello everyone, I'm Big Orange. Because I entered the circle relatively early, in 2013, I have basically experienced all the hot spots. My personal summary so far is fixed investment plus hoarding coins plus interest-bearing. Because my main business may be quantitative, I may focus on the interest-bearing part. In fact, there was a news yesterday that Salvador bought one Bitcoin every day for more than 600 consecutive days. The accumulated cost to today is about more than 40,000. I think it should outperform those who have 90% in our market, or even those who have 95%. So I think the logic of fixed investment plus hoarding coins can continue in our circle. This year, the interest-bearing track has attracted market attention. Many projects are trying to raise scattered Bitcoin and Ethereum in the market in various ways, and then run quantitative.

In the past two years, I think market sentiment has dominated everything. This year, everyone is very resistant to VCs, so you can see that the first-tier VCs are particularly miserable this year. So I think this is why we have to mixCommunity, that is, you need to know what the current market sentiment is like. The last point I think is risk management. The so-called risk management is simply position management. Risk management is the most important experience in the entire cryptocurrency cycle. You must have the ability to be anti-fragile.

Moderator: Please share your views on copy trading from the perspective of users and products.

Liang Li:From a product perspective, I think the ultimate goal of the copy trading product is to allow retail investors to make a profit. Because there is a lot of information in the entire crypto market, they don’t have time to digest it, and they have to analyze and learn. Not everyone has the time cost or the ability to do so. So the copy trading product actually wants to solve this gap. We find very good traders, and we will also do sufficient background checks to ensure that their historical trading data is true. We will take reliability and transparency as a core indicator. We will emphasize the issue of fairness. For example, with other copy trading products on the market, not only will you lose all your capital after copying the order, but you will also give a lot of commissions to the person who brought the order. Everyone will feel that this is very unfair. Therefore, there is a very innovative point in our copy trading product, which is that we will look at your overall rate of return, the overallmake moneyWe will share the profits, the overallmake moneyThere will be no profit sharing when the company makes profits.

When the follower is more confident, he will naturally invest more money. This is also a positive feedback, which makes the lead trader more confident to come to our platform to lead trades, because he knows that the profit sharing mechanism here is fair to everyone, so a win-win model is achieved in the end. Finally, let me talk about our reverse copy trading. For users who follow and lead trades, there are more choices. He can make decisions based on his own judgment of the market and some judgments on the behavior of the lead trader. I think his judgment is right or wrong, and then he can choose to follow forward or reverse. This is good for both the lead trader and the follower. For the follower, they have one more choice, and they can even specifically choose those well-known "reverse-pointing" lead traders to reverse copy trades; for the lead trader, although your own transaction is losing money, those users who reversely copy your orders make money, and you can get profit sharing.

Big Orange:From the user's perspective, the copy trading product should be used as a signal, and you should not just follow one so-called teacher. Users should cast a wide net and invest in all the traders you think are good, then collect their signal data, and then make some quantitative strategy signals of your own based on their signal data, and then constantly fine-tune them. If you only follow one teacher, it is actually no different from betting on the direction yourself, you are just betting on him personally.

Host: Please share some of the “positive indicators” and “negative indicators” that you often look at in cryptocurrency trading.

Phyrex:I think it depends on your own trading system. For example, as for the current Federal Reserve monetary system, the overall trend is definitely to cut interest rates, which means moving from monetary tightening to monetary easing. If we look at it from this logic, liquidity will get better and better. This is a big direction, but there will definitely be many branches in the big direction, so these branches may rise a little at some times and fall a little at other times. But I have always been optimistic about Q4, which is superimposed with an explosive cycle of interest rate cuts, the US election, and the halving of Bitcoin.

When the currency is loose, sector rotation will occur. For the entire risk market, the crypto market may still be a small part, and most of the funds may still be mainly in US stocks or US ETFs. In this case, when the liquidity certainty increases, there will definitely be a lot of funds that will prioritize undervalued or US stock assets that have fallen a lot before. On the other hand, if the entire economy is not good, more people will be willing to choose to invest in some defensive assets, such as food, medicine and government infrastructure.

Cryptocurrency is a relatively backward asset, and it can only benefit when more funds overflow.Xiaobai NavigationCryptocurrency itself has no independent trend, no financial report, and no expectations. It can only follow the main board of the US stock market. Including Bitcoin, everyone has made it into a large-scale technology stock. The investment and direction of cryptocurrency are more dependent on the direction of technology stocks. Rather than saying that others are pointing in the opposite direction or in the right direction, it is better to say that you have your own perfect trading system. What others give you may be a reference. Can this reference strengthen your own judgment? If it is the same as your judgment, it may increase investment. If the reference is completely different from your judgment, then you can see who is wrong.

Rocky:I pay attention to two levels. The first level is the macro level, and the second is some technical levels. At the macro level, I often pay attention to reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, especially Bloomberg news. Bloomberg data is actually very powerful, especially for some predictions. In fact, the accuracy of its predictions can basically reach 80%. As long as it can reach 80%, it is basically the same as 100%. In particular, Bloomberg gave Bitcoin ETF data very early, and the conclusion given at that time was 70% more, which is basically the same as 100%.

Willy Chuang:The first is to focus on innovation in technology applications. Which projects can improve efficiency in technology, break through some current technical bottlenecks, and then add some new application scenarios? I am more optimistic about them. AI. The second one may be in the current application scenarios. Recently, you may hear more about the things in the Ton ecosystem. Because these users may come from different markets. There are relatively few users from the European and American markets and the Japanese and Korean markets, but I think there are more users from Russia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and even South America. The third one may be some signals from regulations. In the past two years, this industry is actually quite sensitive to regulations. You can see that about a year ago, the market makers we knew that were related to the United States basically stopped trading. When they stopped trading, there was actually a relative lack of liquidity in the market. When liquidity is scarce, it is actually not friendly to trading, and the trend cannot be heated up. At the end of the year, the European regulations related to cryptocurrencies are about to take effect. After they take effect, it will be found that many market makers, people who provide liquidity, and some overseas exchanges that provide spot and contract services to local European users will be subject to some restrictions.

Big Orange:Because there are two types of trading, one is left-side trading and the other is right-side trading. I am the type that many people call me a counter-trader because I chase the rise and sell the fall, and I am a pure right-side trader. So you will find that when I rose from 20,000 to 70,000, I was quite accurate. Then when the volatility and correction began in the next few months, I kept setting stop losses. I personally kept setting stop losses, and then people on Twitter called me a counter-trader. There is also a difference between long-term traders and short-term traders, especially when doing swing trading.

Moderator: In this round of cryptocurrency cycle, what product innovations have DEX and CEX made that have been of great help to you? What do you think is worth paying attention to?

Big Orange:我现在策略调整是做网格，然后再加期权双买。现在整个期权的市场成本是比较低的，所以买期权很划算。目前这个策略是比较适合现在的震荡行情，如果真的行情来了，你反正有双买期权的保护，如果说真的一直震荡，其实网格是挺make money的。我个人以前是不太赞成网格这个策略的，但是我觉得网格加期权两边都能保护住的话，在这个行情下还是比较合适的。今年整个套利行情目前来说，中心化交易所的套利利率已经是低的离谱了，整个收益已经低于美债的收益了，但是去中心化交易所跨链套利整体的收益情况还是不错的。

Liang Li:From a product perspective, the innovations on the exchange side are not as abundant as those before 2022, and there are not many innovations in this round. I am more concerned about product innovations in some areas. The first one is RWA, which should beBlockchainIf real-world assets can be put on the blockchain, thenBlockchainThe infrastructure, including trading behavior, can penetrate into everyone's life to a greater extent, which is more meaningful to the development of the entire trend. Another point that I personally find more interesting is AI There are some related functions. There are some products on the market, especially third-party data platforms, which can provide suggestions to users through machine learning and artificial intelligence screening and analysis, and then help many retail and institutional investors to filter information efficiently. We are also working on these two points and will gradually integrate AI into our trading tools to help traders get a smoother trading experience.

Rocky:In the short term, I am more looking forward to the trading experience on DEX, although centralized exchanges have already done a lot. Now listing coins is a pain point for project parties. Some projects are good in themselves, but you will find that even good projects are difficult to list on exchanges, especially on major core exchanges. In the future, how decentralized exchanges can provide better listing services, rather than simply putting it on an IDO, is an innovation direction that is of great concern. We are also looking for this product, and we are also thinking about how to do it. Secondly, the current liquidity is extremely dispersed. I think solving the problem of dispersed liquidity is also something that many project parties may do in the future.

Phyrex:On DEX, we mainly look at some things that don’t have such good liquidity or are not listed on centralized exchanges. After all, the listing strategy of centralized exchanges is different from that of DEX, especially for some memes or some early coins, which may not have enough liquidity or enough capital to be listed on centralized exchanges, but it does not mean that it is a bad project. In this case, decentralized exchanges will still provide good liquidity support. Secondly, we will also have some arbitrage policies in DEX. Whether you are an LP or a robot, there will always be some strategies. But I don’t see any special essential difference in DEX. The ones that should have clamps still have clamps, and there are liquidity issues.

Rocky:The pre-market trading function is quite useful. Users can lock in value and know the project valuation status through pre-market trading logic. The second is the logic of shark fin stablecoin arbitrage, which is actually quite good. If you can see the trend in a certain direction in the future, the expected arbitrage is actually much higher than the normal return of stablecoins. Another one is the price limit function, which is actually quite useful in this round of meme coin market.

Moderator: What is your trading strategy this year? Compared with the beginning of the year, what are the changes?

Rocky:As you all know, at the beginning of the year, the market was very hot in February, and the risk exposure was relatively large. At that time, our entire strategy was also relatively aggressive, and the entire position was also relatively high. At present, it is relatively conservative. We are now grabbing some core targets in the core track. So we are also streamlining ourselves. We have reduced our holdings from 35 at the beginning of the year to 15 targets. We will prioritize the core things of each track, which may be indispensable to the entire narrative, or the currency that you will think of first in the track. Our investment return expectations are declining. We now expect it to be in the range of 5 to 10 times. The third is the risk control strategy. We found that although everyone's volatility has decreased a lot, the volatility is still in a wide range. Everyone is actually in a volatile trend. In this case, in fact, for some key points or key macro data, we must take corresponding risk control measures. In this case, we can effectively avoid some large losses.

We believe that this cycle may be the peak of the market in Q3 2025. After the interest rate cut, it will take some time to ferment. Another factor is the US presidential election. After the US presidential election, a series of policies may be introduced, and they will also ferment for some time. If the price reaches our expectations, or if it does not reach our expectations, and this node is almost there, we may gradually withdraw.

Phyrex:I personally have not changed. I will buy a little when the market goes down. I still believe that the best harvest may come in the fourth quarter. In 2025, I will mainly pay attention to whether there is an economic recession. If there is an economic recession, I may choose to leave in 2025. If there is no economic recession, I will hold on to it and wait and see.

Big Orange:For the spot part, I will continue to invest regularly, hoard coins and earn interest. This is my main strategy and it has not changed. At the beginning of the year, I chased the rise and sold the fall, and followed the trend on the right side. Now, because of the volatile market, I may use grid trading and then add double buying options.

Liang Li:WOO is mainly aimed at professional traders and institutional clients. Their trading habits are completely different from those of retail investors. However, starting this year, we are also working on some functions that are suitable for retail investors or low-frequency traders. In the future, including many things we have done this year, we want to promote them through KOLs andCommunityWe can bring these retail investors together and provide better services. The community will frequently provide feedback so that traders can have a better experience on our WOO platform.

The article comes from the Internet:"Positive" and "negative" in the eyes of trading masters

Related recommendations: 1000 times profit is just around the corner, join Super Gains now

In the recent Super Gains event hosted by LBank and Polkadot Ecosystem, the first 4,000 people who complete the task can share PLMC worth 300,000 US dollars, and the highest award is worth 10,000 US dollars. Market liquidity has dried up, the global economy and the crypto market have fallen into an overall downturn, and macro factors have become the sword of Damos hanging over our heads. At this time, how to maintain profitability or not lose money in the market...