At the dawn of the interest rate cut, BTC needs more patience to effectively break through

Written by: Shang2046

The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

After six months of high-level fluctuations, BTC has been squeezed dry and is ready to take off, but the US macro-economy has temporarily become the core force determining the market.

Market Week

This week, BTC opened at $57,301 and closed at $54,867, with an amplitude of 12.6%, and the lowest point dropped to $52,000, very close to the low point of the new high consolidation zone of $49,000, which fell rapidly a month ago. The gains accumulated in the previous two weeks of rebounding to $65,000 disappeared, and the market has been hovering below the 200-day moving average for a month. The panic index once reached 26, close to the bottom of the bear market.

Although our monthly report points out that in the range of 54,000-73,700, 2.9 million BTC have been newly accumulated in the past six months, building a strong theoretical support. Various on-chain data show that we are back to the situation in September last year: the internal market structure of BTC has been sorted out for a long time, just like a pile of firewood squeezed out of excess water, dry firewood and ignited at the touch of a button, but there are still clear signs of continued inflows on the capital side. With the capital side in a fragile balance and the US interest rate adjusted to a very sensitive moment, BTC has clearly handed over the pricing power to the US dollar system.

The US non-farm payrolls data released on September 6th is crucial to the upcoming US interest rate policy adjustment in September. The 142,000 new jobs were slightly lower than market expectations. The expectations of mainstream US financial institutions were also divided. In the end, concerns about economic recession and the continued deleveraging of the Japanese yen carry trade caused funds in the entire market to flow out of risky assets. The impact on BTC was very obvious in the US ETF. Since the US ETF went online, it has recorded a net outflow for 8 consecutive days for the first time.

After a weekend of digestion, Nasdaq began to show signs of rebounding, coupled with the market's concerns about economic recession also reduced to a considerable extent, BTC rebounded from 53,000 to around 57,000 US dollars. But we must pay attentionXiaobai NavigationThe market is still in a fragile balance before the interest rate cut is confirmed in September. We firmly believe that the interest rate cut will be beneficial to BTC, but historically, it takes some time for various expected price ins to play a role in liquidity. We tend to believe that before the US election in November, BTC is expected to get out of the painful consolidation range caused by the uncertainty of US macroeconomic policies and economy.

Federal Reserve and economic data

On September 6, the US released data. The negative side came from: non-farm payrolls were 142,000, lower than the expected 160,000; the positive side came from: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%, a new low since June, and the first decline after rising for four consecutive months;

However, the non-farm payrolls in June and July suffered a major revision, with a downward revision of 86,000 in both months.

After the data was released, the United States rose briefly, but soon entered a sustained decline and eventually closed at the lowest point.

The dollar, U.S. stocks, and gold may be based on concerns about a "hard landing", with stocks, bonds, and currencies falling. At the same time, the dollar against the yen has fallen to the low point of the Carry Trade crash on August 5. The Nasdaq still has about 6% to go from the Carry Trade low point.

Stablecoins and ETFs

The two channels recorded a net outflow of nearly US$500 million overall, with the ETF channel recording a main outflow of US$706 million (the second largest week in history), with outflows continuing for eight consecutive trading days.

Stablecoin recorded a net inflow of 120 million, of which the previously strong USDT weakened, with an outflow of 12 million for the whole week, while USDC had an inflow of 158 million.

The SSR index has approached the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since January last year, indicating that the supply of stablecoins has been seriously underestimated relative to the BTC price, and there is a large demand for a rebound.

Supply Analysis

In the price range above $54,000, the total accumulated BTC chips are 5.985 million, and 30.31% is in a loss state. The loss ratio is lower than 41% in September last year.

Long-term investors' positions continued to mature, increasing by 40,000 coins, while short-term positions decreased by 45,000 coins. The 7-day average of long and short-term selling volume showed a downward trend, and the selling pressure was not large.

CentralizationexchangeThe destocking trend was interrupted, and the accumulation increased by 5,000. The purchasing power decreased, corresponding to the slowdown of stablecoin inflows and ETF outflows.

BTC on-chain data

BTC's new addresses and active addresses are both hovering at low levels, but have not dropped significantly and are generally stable;

The number of new addresses and active addresses in Ethereum Eco declined significantly, but the total number of Transacitons remained high.

Solana's new addresses fell slightly, active addresses hit a new high, and total Transacitons remained high.

Cycle Indicators

The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0, and the bullish signal is temporarily dormant.

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