Summary of the fierce debate between long and short positions on ETH: Listen to both sides and wait for the market to decide the direction

author:Flip Research

Compiled by: Xiaobai Navigation coderworld

ETH bulls vs bears

The $ETH bull and bear camps are now more polarized than ever, with compelling arguments on both sides. Below is my summary of the bull and bear arguments.

Bearish view

• After Dencun, profitability has fallen sharply, and this situation does not look likely to change in the short term:

BREAD:

“L2 Will make Ethereum deflationary again"

No, they don’t – and we’ve already seen proof of that.

about L2,blob And a report on why the concept of Ultrasound Money has failed without mainnet users.

• ETH’s market fit is weakening.cryptocurrencyPurists want to own BTC, regular investors are attracted to $SOL, and $TRX is capturing the transfer of stablecoins. A “one size fits all” approach no longer works.

• L2 is becoming increasingly decentralized. Currently,@l2beat 71 L2s, 20 L3s, and a staggering 82 upcoming projects are being tracked. This significantly degrades the user experience and becomes a significant barrier to widespread adoption. At the same time, SOL demonstrates the potential of both a single chain and an ecosystem.

• The usefulness of DeFi is being questioned. Many projects are just predatory in nature.TokenThe high float, low fully diluted market capitalization model is designed to take advantage of the average investor.Xiaobai NavigationExtract as much value as possible from the market and transfer it to the pockets of venture investors.What Cobie thinksWorth reading)

• ETH ETF's performance is lackluster, it seems @rewkang The view is correct:

Andrew Kang:

Article: Ethereum ETF Impact Analysis

The Bitcoin ETF opens up the opportunity for many new buyers to allocate Bitcoin in their portfolios. The impact of the ETH ETF is less clear.

• Market sentiment for ETH is at an all-time low. Combined with the lackluster performance of the ETHBTC and SOLETH trading pairs, we could see a death spiral and an outflow of on-chain TVL.

• We’ve been conditioned to think of ETH as the “chosen” L1, but in such a nascent industry, this view doesn’t necessarily hold true.

• From an institutional and political perspective, BTC is the main focus. Purists like Michael Saylor are advocating for BTC as the most hardened form of money, and this narrative does not exist in ETH. ETH is struggling to find similar “supporters”.

sassal.eth/acc :

All my net worth is in this person's hands

“There is no second choice” - Michael Saylor

Bullish arguments

• ETH and L2 transaction volumes are reaching all-time highs, while prices are trading near lows. Ethereum has successfully scaled and is ready for the masses:

Source: L2Beat

• ETH’s total value locked (TVL) is 10x that of its nearest competitor (excluding L2). L2’s TVL remains locked in the Ethereum ecosystem, and this value should eventually accrue to ETH holders.

• ETH remains the main institutional chain, and after years of testing, developer activity is at its highest level. Many of the smartest minds in this space are working together to develop ETH's development roadmap. Any institutional access will be done on ETH, whether it is on-chain real assets (RWAs) or on-chainTokenization, forecasting markets, etc.

AdrianoFeria.eth ️:

Blackrock is operating a $ETH spot ETF.

They have issued a stablecoin on $ETH.

他们还计划对资金和各种资产进行Tokenchange.

• ETH’s underperformance this year coincides with the shift away from DeFi and toward memes. However, the narrative appears to be changing.

Kaito AI :

Is DeFi really back?

After being marginalized by other narratives, signs of DeFi recovery are emerging.

• Like Coinbase's cbBTC and @VitalikButerin Supported L2 @megaeth_labs Such developments could spur a new round of DeFi speculation, and @babylonlabs_io The upcoming mainnet launch may spark new interest in the broader staking/re-staking narrative.

• ETH continues to find killer apps this year, @polymarket is a great example. This will only continue, and by the time the next "DeFi" emerges, the price will already reflect reality - markets are forward-looking.

Nick Garcia:

It's hard to say @Polymarket Not this year’s crypto app of the year.

It is on track to hit $475 million in volume and 75,000 new accounts in August alone.

It is commonly cited by pollsters, commentators, ordinary people, and campaigns.

• Multiple interoperability solutions are being developed - in a few years we may barely need to know which chain we are connecting to. Protocols include @layerzero_labs,@synapseprotocol,@omnifdn,@wormhole etc.

• The launch of the ETH ETF took place in a completely different market environment from Bitcoin and suffered from poor price performance, which disappointed potential investors. Currently, political and institutional attention is mainly focused on $BTC, but as Bitcoin is increasingly accepted, people will start to ask: "What's next?" $ETH is undoubtedly the obvious answer to this question.

• Market sentiment at all-time lows (ATL) creates opportunities for investors - price movements drive the market narrative. All of the above factors become clear as speculators start to buy the dip, causing prices to rebound upwards.

“The day when ETH reaches $10,000 is bound to come.” — Legendary trader GCR

in conclusion

There are such strong arguments on both sides, which could lead to big price swings in either direction. Although I have a certain bias as an ETH holder, I think the bull argument is more compelling in the long run, especially after this year's price volatility. What is your view on this debate?

The article comes from the Internet:Summary of the fierce debate between long and short positions on ETH: Listen to both sides and wait for the market to decide the direction

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