BTC is in the 5-digit range again after two months. What happened to the market? Is there still hope for a bull market?

author:Gargoyle

Compiled by: Xiaobai Navigation coderworld

Why does it appear? $BTC Selling off? This is the result of a combination of factors, including the Mt. Gox incident, ETFs, halving, Germany, etc.

I have prepared a comprehensive analysis of the current situation.

In the past week,Bitcoin fell from $71,000 to $57,000, a drop of about 20%, something we haven’t seen in a long time.

Today, we’ll take a look at why this is happening and what the outlook for BTC holds.

Mentougou

this homecryptocurrencyexchangeIt closed down in 2014 due to a hacker attack.

At the end of last month, there were reports that Mentougou was about to start repaying its creditors.

exchangeRepresentatives of plan to distribute 142,000 BTC (0.68% of the total Bitcoin supply) to customers.

Many people are concerned that creditors may choose to sell the Bitcoin they received, which would certainly have an impact on the market considering the amount of BTC they hold.

Furthermore, the mere fear of this possibility has caused many to start selling their assets.

But that’s not all.

BTC ETF

Spot Bitcoin ETFcryptocurrencyThe price of a stock is more dependent on the sentiment of large investors.

Currently, the BTC ETF holds 5% of the total supply of Bitcoin.

本月初，ETF 再次出现资金流出，这些变化也给cryptocurrency的价格带来了压力。

Challenges facing miners

On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin will undergo a halving event, reducing miners’ rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.

In order for miners to continue mining, a rise in the price of Bitcoin is necessary, and many people are looking forward to it.

However, the price has not risen as expected and many miners are now forced to sell their BTC.

US interest rates

The lower interest rates become, the more attractive risky investments like cryptocurrencies become.

The FRS (Federal Reserve) meeting minutes showed that policymakers were reluctant to cut interest rates unless there was more data showing that inflation was moving towards the 2% target rate.

Germany

The German government holds a large amount of Bitcoin and has begun to sell off its assets.

根据 Arkham 的数据，德国政府最近将 400 BTC 转移到 Bitstamp、Coinbase 和 Kraken 交易所。

In total, 2,700 BTC has been withdrawn from the government’swalletMoved to the exchange.

All of these factors have combined to lead to the market conditions we are currently seeing. However, there is always another side to the story, and there are also factors that support the rise of Bitcoin right now, let’s discuss them in detail.

1. Major investors are not selling BTC

Despite the drop in Bitcoin prices, companies did not sell their assets. Instead, many companies started buying BTC during the price drop.

Despite the need to free up capital, the largest miner, Marathon Digital Holdings, has not disposed of its assets.

It is worth noting that miner capitulation could signal an impending trend reversal.

Statistics show that Bitcoin usually starts to rise about four months after the halving event.

If history repeats itself, bulls could oust bears by late summer.

2. Community

According to data from Santiment, there are growing calls on social media to “buy the dip.”

When Bitcoin was priced below $60,000, it was considered particularly attractive.

The graph below shows statistics on calls to buy Bitcoin on various social networks.

3. Expectations of a Fed rate cut

While most market participants are convinced the Fed will not cut rates at its next meeting in late July, delegates hinted that investors could see a rate cut later this year.

4. US election

Encryption in the United StatesCommunityRapidly increasingXiaobai NavigationLong, the presidential candidate did not ignore the topic.

After the recent debate, everyone believed that Donald Trump, who publicly pledged to support the development of the crypto market, would become president.

If he wins, the head of the SEC could be a positive for cryptocurrencies.

in conclusion

I have analyzed the positives and negatives of the current market. I do not want to impose any opinions on you, just do your own analysis and develop your own strategy.

Personally, I think Bitcoin is a very good long-term investment (at least 4 years). I am not worried about the future of cryptocurrencies and I believe the market is in good shape.

The article comes from the Internet:BTC is in the 5-digit range again after two months. What happened to the market? Is there still hope for a bull market?

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