Greythorn Monthly Market Research Report: Crypto Market Sentiment Remains Depressed, Cryptocurrency’s Political Influence Rises
Author: Greythorn
introduction
Welcome to Greythorn Asset Management's monthly market update for May 2024. We are pleased to share with you our operations and market trend analysis to provide you with valuable insights. Our mission is to invest in cutting-edge technologies and diversified assets to create significant value and make a positive contribution to the industry.
At Greythorn we are committed to providingcryptocurrencyMonthly updates on the market. These updates include in-depth analysis of market dynamics, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic factors affecting cryptocurrencies. For more information, visit ourwebsite.
Market Analysis
Current Crypto Market Sentiment
尽管近期有所反弹，但整体加密市场情绪依旧低迷。由于股票和债券的估值风险以及货币价值波动，资产多样化和价值存储的需求依然强劲。然而，BTC的定价主要由短期交易者主导，经常受宏观经济环境和流动性问题的影响。在美联储维持利率和量化紧缩政策，以及财政部有限的资产价格支撑措施背景下，加密货币对流动性条件高度敏感，近期可能导致市场波动
Source: TradringView
Hong Kong ETF issuance falls short of expectations
Recently launched ETFs in Hong KongNot meeting expectations, the trading volume was only $11.2 million, while the volume in the United States was as high as $655 million. US-listed BTC spot ETFs also saw significant outflows, and although this is part of normal market fluctuations, it also shows that BTC's performance is relatively stable.
Tether的稳定性受到质疑
TetherLarge holdingsU.S. Treasury bonds have raised concerns about the impact on the market if they are liquidated. However, the Treasury market is strong enough to handle this situation.ChainalysisThe collaboration on technology to identify high-risk addresses reflects the company’s ongoing efforts and determination to address regulatory challenges amid growing geopolitical tensions and sanctions.
SAB 121 repeal progresses smoothly
The U.S. House of Representatives votedabolitionSAB 121, a regulation from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), restricts banks from providing custody services for cryptocurrencies.Threatened to veto the move,butBipartisan supportThe repeal of the SEC highlights an important step in integrating crypto assets into traditional financial infrastructure. The political move shows the growing recognition of the potential of cryptocurrencies and the need for regulatory clarity.
Robinhood and Coinbase report strong first quarter results
Robinhood and Coinbase reported strong first quarter results, driven by a surge in cryptocurrency trading volumes. Robinhood’s retail trader countSignificant increase, while Coinbase saw growth in institutional trading volumes. This trend underscores the dynamics of the crypto market, with both retail and institutional investors showing strong interest.
Cryptocurrency’s political influence rises
Cryptocurrency has become a hot topic in the US election debateKey issues, especially in swing states. A large portion of voters consider cryptocurrencies to be very important, which has influenced campaign strategies. Donald Trump has expressed support for cryptocurrencies, which contrasts with the Biden administration. The political landscape around cryptocurrencies is heating up, reflecting a broader debate about innovation, financial freedom and overregulation.
Source: Cointribune
Crypto Market Support in India
BinanceBinance and KuCoinSuccessful registration印度金融情报单位（Financial Intelligence Unit），标志着印度向受监管的加密经济迈出了积极的一步。这一发展突显了印度对加密货币日益增长的接受度，以及币安重获全球尊重的努力。考虑到印度庞大的交易和去中心化金融（DeFi）用户群体，这个市场的增长潜力显著。
US approves ETH spot ETF
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)approveThe first Ethereum (ETH) spotexchangeThe approval of Ethereum as a commodity investment asset ready for retail and institutional investors and highlights the effectiveness of the cryptocurrency lobby. The move is expected to enhance market liquidity and support further innovation on the Ethereum network.
London SecuritiesexchangeCrypto ETN
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded notes (ETNs) are now available on the London Stock Exchange.Listing, marking a step towards greater legitimacy for cryptocurrencies. While the initial excitement was limited and insufficient to support further significant developments, these products provide professional investors with easy access to cryptocurrencies, continuing the trend of providing smoother entry channels for crypto investing.
ETH liquidity shifts to Asia
Over the past year, Ethereum liquidity has shifted significantly from the United StatesSteeringAsia, possibly due to regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. The recently approved ETH spot ETF may reverse this trend, which is expected to promote net inflows and improve market liquidity.
Bitcoin options on the New York Stock Exchange
New York Stock ExchangePlanned listingCash-settled Bitcoin (BTC) options, pending regulatory approval. This move, along with its interest in listing spot cryptocurrencies, foreshadows the potential for significant progress that is to come. With the easing of the regulatory environment and the Biden administration’s outreach to cryptocurrency experts, it shows that crypto assets are gradually being accepted by institutions.
Mt. Gox Refunds Coming Soon
An important event in the cryptocurrency world is that the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange will announce a refund service. After a decade of waiting, the liquidation of returning recovered Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and cash to creditors is about to begin.Xiaobai NavigationPatience is warranted as the work continues. Recently, the Trustees haveTransferThe bank has received about 140,000 bitcoins in preparation for these repayments. The exact timing is unclear, with the deadline set for October, but the distributions could begin earlier or be delayed further. There are concerns that recipients could sell off their bitcoins, causing the price to fall. However, the market has been expecting these distributions for years, and the repayments will be made in stages, and many recipients may be long-term bitcoin holders who will not sell immediately.
Macro Insights
Consumer confidence rises amid recession fears
U.S. consumer confidence rose in MayUnexpected riseThe Fed's central bank index rose to 102, breaking a three-month downward trend. Despite strong optimism about the current economy, concerns about a possible recession within the next year remain. Inflation expectations also rose slightly, reflecting continued anxiety about rising costs. Federal Reserve officials hinted that rate hikes may still be on the agenda, adding to the market's cautious mood.
The application of stablecoins in international trade
Two major Russian metal companies have now started using stablecoins withChinese partners for transactions, bypassing the traditional banking system. The move highlights the efficiency of stablecoins in cross-border payments and may prompt U.S. regulators to consider clearer regulations. The growing use of stablecoins highlights their potential in global trade.
JapaneseTokenEfforts
TokyoLaunched a subsidy program，支持证券代币发行，旨在覆盖大部分成本。此举将东京定位为代币化市场的关键参与者，可能会与大阪竞争。日本对代币化的承诺可能会推动经济活动和创新，吸引更多企业探索这一新兴领域。
Source: Ledger Insights
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalate
Officials in TaiwanProvocative remarksAfter that, ChinaIncreaseThe United States has also increased its military activities near Taiwan. These have included exercises simulating missile attacks, raising the risk of conflict.
Cryptocurrency legislation in Türkiye
Türkiye is promoting aRegulating Crypto Service ProvidersThe bill aims to formalize and expand its active crypto market. Due to the high rate of cryptocurrency adoption among Turkish citizens, this legislation is likely to boost the development of digital asset services and products in Turkey.
The impact of new US tariffs
President Biden imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, including electric vehicles and batteriesNew tariffsThe tariffs are intended to boost domestic production but could lead to higher costs and more fiscal stimulus, further raising concerns about government debt.
Putin's strategic visit to China
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently visited China.strengthenTheir partnership challenges U.S. influence and signals a shift in the global power landscape, with the two countries set to deepen cooperation in various strategic areas.
Saudi-Japan oil trade settled in yen
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin SalmanPlan a VisitJapan is discussing switching oil trade settlement from dollars to yen. Such a move could boost the yen, reduce Japan's need to sell U.S. Treasuries and slightly weaken the dollar's global dominance.
China-Serbia trade agreement uses RMB
China and SerbiaAgree to increaseTrade conducted in the yuan further reduces reliance on the dollar. The development is part of a broader trend of countries diversifying their trade currencies and financial reserves, marking a shift in global economic relations.
Summarize
As we wrap up this month’s market update, it’s clear that the world of cryptocurrency and macroeconomics continues to evolve at a rapid pace. From rising consumer confidence amid recession fears to the growing popularity of stablecoins in international trade, the market environment is both challenging and full of opportunities. Regulatory changes such as Japan’s push for tokenization and Turkey’s potential new crypto regulations show how governments are working to adapt to this dynamic environment. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty remind us of the interconnectedness of global markets. Throughout all of these developments, one trend remains constant: the pursuit of innovation and the desire for financial stability. As we move forward, staying informed and adaptable will be key to navigating these evolving markets. We look forward to continuing to provide you withLatest trends and insights
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Greythorn Asset Management Pty Ltd (ABN 96 621 995 659) ("Greythorn"). The information contained in this document is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide investment or financial advice. This document does not constitute advertising or marketing, nor is it an offer or invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any specific trading strategy. In preparing this document, Greythorn has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any recipient. Therefore, before making any investment decision, the person or institution receiving this document should assess their personal circumstances and consult their accounting, legal or other professional advisors for professional advice.
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Millions of dollars in EIGEN tokens? The third-party "consultant" position of the Ethereum Foundation researcher has caused great controversy. Written by Alex Liu, Foresight News "The Ethereum Foundation has more than 300 people, and only a few of them serve as consultants to the Eigen Foundation, which will not affect its neutrality." It sounds reasonable...
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