Dialogue with a magical trader: Sneaking into the GCR community, buying Sol at $9

Host: Nathan, 7UpDAO Founding Partner

Guest: Shu, senior secondary market trader

Editor's note: This conversation took place in March this year. I am publishing it now because I have seen that many of his predictions have come true. In 2016, Shu left an international department of ByteDance to work full-time as a secondary trader in the crypto field. He sneaked into the famous GCR community and bought Solana at a low price of $9. We talked a lot about selection, secondary investment philosophy, Meme, VC coins, short selling, Solana, and the mysterious GCR.

Talk about the experience of entering the circle

Nathan:What was your experience like in entering the industry? What was the opportunity, and what stories have you had in the past few years?

Shu: In 2013, when I was studying in the United States, I heard that my friends bought Bitcoin and started mining. I paid attention to it at the time but did not buy it. Later in July and August of the same year, I saw Danny the Cow, who was very popular on Renren at the time, mentioned Bitcoin. This aroused my curiosity, so I started to pay attention to this field and bought some Bitcoin later. I was still studying at the time, so I only bought a small amount with my pocket money. I remember very clearly that the price of Bitcoin soared from 200 or 300 US dollars to 700 or 800 US dollars, and then soared to 1,000 US dollars at the end of November. However, the price then fell sharply in December. Although I was just investing with a playful mentality at the time, I later realized that this experience played an important role in my subsequent growth, especially in the cycle of 2016 and 2017.

I just returned to China in 2016 and joined ByteDance to work on internationalization. One day, I noticed that one of our engineer colleagues was browsing a Bitcoin-like altcoin.exchangeThis reminds me of my experience in 2013 when I also bought some similarcryptocurrency, such as Litecoin and Ripple. Because I have never sold them, their prices have increased many times. This can be regarded as my second foray into this field.

In 2016 and 2017, I made some money from my initial investments, some of which multiplied many times. Many friends issued coins, and some friends joined Binance, etc. I remember that in December 2017, BTC reached 20,000 US dollars. In January 2018, there was a crazy rise in altcoins, but probably about 2-3 weeks later, the price of the coin began to fall. At that time, I was not a trader at all. I didn’t know how to trade. Anyway, I bought it and it went up, and I made money. I invested in new coins, and then I lost a lot of money. Most of the money I earned was lost because I didn’t know how to trade or read the lines.

The opportunity that really changed me came between March and April 2021.cryptocurrency市场再次活跃起来。但是在 5 月 19 日，火币和许多其他交易所突然爆仓，导致我一天之内损失了数百万美元，这让我感到非常沮丧。2021 年 4 月份的时候，我也注意到，推特上有一些 trader KOL，因为当时自己对这个领域了解有限，所以就 follow 了很多。I follow a person who I think is pretty cool, his name is GCR.He had already warned me at the end of April, but I didn’t know he was that powerful at the time. Because you have to follow each KOL for a while before you know if he is powerful or not.

During July and August 2021, I was in a rest period because I experienced a huge loss and felt very uncomfortable. At that time, I began to systematically learn various trading skills, almost from scratch, including learning K-line, etc. More importantly, I found that there are many powerful English traders on Twitter, but how to distinguish them from many KOLs is a big problem.

For example, the biggest lesson I learned during the 2017 cycle was that most KOLs in the Chinese community were of low quality. The reason for this is actually very simple. You can look at the A-shares or some of the domestic experience over the years, because there are so many Chinese people, including those accounts like Digital Maniac in 2017. Many people made a lot of money and had a lot of fans. For them, the simplest thing is tomake moneyThe way is to cut the leeks of their fans instead of providing some alpha to their fans. I think this is very different from the United States. Although there are people cutting leeks in the United States, there are a small number of people who are really excellent. They don’t set up paid groups, but share truly useful information. But it is difficult to find such people. You may only find one in 1,000 Twitter accounts. The key is to learn how to find them, soXiaobai NavigationAt that time I spent a lot of time observing.

In August and September 2021, I really started to pay attention to some people worth following, and my trading skills gradually improved. I started to make profits and gradually made back my losses.I remember in October 2021, GCR predicted that the Bitcoin futures ETF would be passed soon, and he posted a message on Twitter saying that he would create a “ReBirth DAO”.I rushed into the post within the first ten minutes of seeing it. Later, the post was closed within an hour. He created a Discord group. After I joined, I started to communicate with many Western traders and learned about their trading styles. I found that their styles were very different from ours. Gradually, I also got to know some very good traders on Twitter.

As for GCR, his full name on FTX is very long, GCR is just his abbreviation. He ranks at the top of FTX's profit list. If we don't consider institutions, he can probably rank in the top two or three. He is a very outstanding trader. His track record on Twitter is that, for example, if he posts 100 messages, maybe 99 of them are about trading and they are all accurate, so his hit rate is the highest. This is actually the most concerned principle among our group of traders: you can't publish analysis after making a lot of money, that's "hindsight". There are also many English-language leeks-cutting groups in China that analyze in this way. But GCR usually gives predictions in advance, and sometimes provides specific trading points. However, he is not very active in the public eye now, and communicates more in our small group.

Nathan: Are you currently doing secondary trading full-time?

Shu:全职做二级交易，因为我基本上把 GCR 当偶像，他说的很多交易确实都命中了。他其实 2021 年高点的时候就说过，Crypto 牛市的时候你不应该做任何事情，就应该来全身心，每 24 小时在电脑前，炒币做 trading 各种学习。在熊市的时候，你应该开始与各种项目方建立关系，这取决于你是从事一级交易还是从事项目方等工作。在牛市中全力投入交易是获取 alpha 收益的重要机会，而这种机会在加密货币领域可能十年才出现一次。

About investment style and approach

Nathan: What is your style and approach to secondary trading now?

Shu: My trading style is relatively aggressive, because most of it is my own money, and I definitely want a higher multiple of returns, so my risk appetite is relatively high, and it is definitely biased towards the left side.

On the left side, there are actually two types.The first type is technical traders who mainly use lines and various quantitative indicators, such as the long-short ratio, for analysis. The second type is narrative traders who pay more attention to the stories and emotional factors behind the market.This gives us a lot of confidence.I am actually mainly a narrative trader with some quantitative analysis, but quantitative analysis is not the most important in my strategy.在加密货币市场，由于参与者相对较少，而且裁判监管者、交易所和大户往往关系密切，这使得市场不如传统股市那样公平和透明。Therefore, many technical indicators may fail or lag seriously in the crypto market unless you only focus on mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

So I mainly do left-side, narrative-motivated trading, and a small part of it is insider trading.For example, when Solana was in the bear market, there might be 5 or 6 people in the GCR group, and the orders might start from 3 to 5 million US dollars.But they usually don't directly disclose the specific order amount, but give a general direction and hints.

At once crypto Traders, including our group, actually have their own password system when we talk, or we can say this code name, there are many slangs, so the outside world may not understand. Many times, if you set up a fund, you must be more stable. If there is too much drawdown, it will not work. The first thing is to be stable. For example, it is good to configure BTC+ETH, plus 20%-30% of SOL, plus 5%-10% of Meme coin. But if I think this Meme coin is rising, I may allocate 50% or 60% and add leverage, so it is definitely different.

Nathan: So to sum up, your trading style is: mainly on the left side. In addition, when making decisions on a certain coin, there may be more elements of narrative, trend, turning point and event analysis?

Shu: Yes, there are many influencers on Twitter, such as Willy Woo (@woonomic), who has a great impact on the market. He is very famous and has a very high hit rate. He should be the most influential person in public speeches. There is also Anatoly (@aeyakovenko), who is the co-founder of Solana Labs and the spokesperson of the Solana system. These big KOLs are part of it, and some are more technical. They will analyze the order book for you and analyze various outflows and inflows on Binance or Coinbase. I will also look at some macroeconomics, but in fact, macroeconomics is not that important, because everyone knows that the macroeconomics will be strong, but there is definitely a difference of opinion on how strong it will be.

When it comes to a specific project, such as Solana, or other currencies, I will see if I have some internal connections or information. This connection must be within the project party. If they are not the project party or are not in a core position of the project party, then the information they provide may not be accurate.The most important thing in Crypto is that you have to determine which level of the information pyramid your information is at?Most people's judgment is not accurate. They may think they are at the second or third level, but in fact they may be at the fifth or sixth level, so they are much slower.Once you slow down your trade, it will be useless because crypto The fluctuations are very fast.

the last point,Market sentiment is also an important factor that is often overlooked.While there are many social signals, these signals are completely subjective.If you just objectively collect these signals, such as counting the number of mentions of all major KOLs, and then trade based on this, your trading results may be very poor.Because most KOLs want to attract more fans, and most fans don’t understand trading, so they tend to chase the rise and sell the fall. Although chasing the rise and selling the fall may be better in some stages, for example, if a KOL posts a tweet, you may follow the order within 15 minutes of the tweet, and you will find that your performance is very good, but many people may wait five hours, and if you enter again, you may lose money. Many of them are very time sensitive.

Nathan: Do you have any preferences for selecting and trading in asset prices and FDV?

Shu: There are choices. I will have a different level of configuration, as far as mainstream coins are concerned,I first bought Solana in January 2023 at around $9. Because GCR has been bullish on Solana,Last time I also talked about the reason why I am bullish on Solana. For example, among BTC, ETH and some other L1s, among other L1 asset allocations, I definitely have the largest position in Solana.Because its liquidity is good enough.

The second level is to look at the meme coin. Meme coins also have levels.First look at OG, for example, Doge and Shib in the previous cycle will be paid attention to.The second is a chain specific meme coin, divided by different chains and different ecosystems, for example, Solana's Wif. We bought Wif at about 0.26, which is almost ten times.Then there is pure meme coinFor example, Pepe. People may say that Pepe belongs to the Eth ecosystem, but I actually regard it as a meme coin without any chain specificity.Meme coins can also be divided into different themes, such as whether it is dog-type or cat-type.If there are many dog-type currencies with market capitalizations exceeding one billion dollars, should there also be several cat-type currencies with market capitalizations reaching one billion dollars? Going down further, what is the third most popular Pet? If you can figure out the series question, and you guessed it right, it might be very valuable. Overall,We think that this bull market actually depends on two ends: either buy the most mainstream and powerful layer 1, or bet on the right meme coin.

Nathan: In the meme quadrant, is there a big correlation between the different animal attributes? For example, dogs already have an OG valuation system, so cats will definitely be associated and anchored with dogs. Is there any value support?

Shu:No, you can only look at it in the broadest sense. For example, if a dog-related coin is valued at 4 or 5 billion U.S. dollars, then no matter how unpopular a cat-related coin is, it is very likely to reach 1 billion U.S. dollars, which is one-seventh or one-eighth of the dog-related coin.

Nathan: What do you think about the fact that Solana's meme often performs better than ETH's meme in this bull market? Does it have something to do with the fact that the funds behind it and the fact that traders in different regions are not as influential as those in the United States?

Shu: I think the reason is very simple. Two or three weeks ago, I tried to buy a few meme coins on ETH, and the gas fee was very high. As someone who came from a traditional Internet giant, ByteDance, I understood immediately that the on-board cost was too high. For example, if I deposit $1,000 or $2,000, my ETH gas fee is 10%, but Solana may be 2-3%, so of course I will deposit Solana. And most people don’t deposit one or two thousand dollars when they buy, but $100 or even tens of dollars. So when they deposit $50, they see that they have to pay $30 or $20 in gas fees, so they won’t deposit. This is the most direct reason.

Another reason is that Solana has already made some headlines in this cycle. In addition to the rising price of the coin, it has a lot of exposure in the United States. If you are in the United States, you may have come into contact with its physical stores, the mobile phones it released, etc., so whether you are inside or outside the circle, you have actually had some degree of contact with it. If Solana supports bullishness in many aspects, then everyone will naturally wonder what is on it. This is a more logical thinking.

Nathan: If there are many other chains, such as L2, and have begun to regard memes as their own market and growth engine, and have started meme projects. Do you think these memes are worth buying?

Shu: It will definitely go up, but I won’t buy it. This is another misunderstanding. People like to buy things that make up for the rise.I never buy things that are rising, I only buy the fastest ones. I also learned this from GCR. You should always pay attention to the fastest running coins. Your only job is to find out which ones are the fastest running in this meme cycle. If you didn’t get on board at the beginning, then find out when to get on board, such as when it pulls back.You should not buy those new things that make up for the increase, or you can only allocate a small part of those things that make up for the increase. Because to put it bluntly, your market maker or project party is not very competitive.

If your market maker is very good and has the most accurate judgment on BTC or the entire market, shouldn’t you lead the market instead of catching up? In other words, suppose you are starting a business and you are one of the first to get financing, but if you are not successful in the first round of financing, it only means that you are not reacting fast enough, and slow reactions will lead to countless drawbacks in a capital-efficient market like crypto. Because everyone in crypto is fighting for attention, but attention is actually disproportionately concentrated. Take Bome, for example, it may grab all the attention in one day, but these are all backed by big money holders. We look at the curve of its price increase, including the words of shouting orders,The price has risen so much in one or two days. There is no miracle in this kind of thing. I don’t know why many friends believe that this is a coincidence. It has never been a coincidence.For example, when Solana saw the price reach $9, we roughly calculated that it could reach $18 in January. We all had a budget, and basically our group probably raised $3 or 4 million at the time. GCR alone invested $1.5 million, and each of us invested a little.

Nathan: What do you think of the so-called “VC coins” nowadays?

Shu:My personal style is not to touch any tokens that are mostly owned by VCs, unless the VC has been cleaned out, such as Solana. The reason is very simple. VCs rely on the money of rich people to invest, so the pressure is not that great. For example, a VC fund may have 300 million US dollars, but you are not using your own money, so your motivation is naturally not that great. For the big traders in our group, taking 10 or 20 times the money of others is completely different from taking your own money. So I don’t pay attention to anything any VC says. I pay more attention to what ordinary people think.

Second, I pay attention to what the real powerful houses think, such as the largest market makers of BTC, BlackRock, and Jane Street. To a certain extent, VCs are pure bulls. They can only shout long because of their job attributes and cognitive genes. If they don't shout long, they can't raise money. It's hard to say whether they are really optimistic or just fake optimism to fool LPs, but this kind of blindly bullish speech will affect and mislead the public. An accurate market must have both long and short positions. For example, in 2022, I made 70% more money from shorting than from long positions. A large part of the money in Crypto will be made from shorting. It is certain that BTC will retrace 50% in the future. If you find the right time to short at the top of the bull market, you can also make a lot of money, and you don't have to worry about the callback, but you have to have enough margin (this is not financial advice). In addition, shorting must be done on the right side, and you can't go all in, and don't guess the absolute top. However, ordinary people should not short easily, and shorting requires skills. But people who are good at short selling will definitely be good at long selling, because short selling requires more judgment than long selling.

For many people, patience is the most important thing when it comes to short selling. The second is to ensure that the margin is sufficient, because sometimes leverage is used. I remember in 21 years, I shorted a small currency on an exchange, and the price of that currency soared 15 times in one hour, and I was liquidated. This is not good for the exchange either, because if the price fluctuates so drastically in one hour, it will seriously damage the reputation of the exchange. Generally speaking, this situation is intolerable. If a currency rises by more than 3 to 5 times in one hour, it means that the liquidity and order depth management of the exchange are not in place. Exchanges like Binance will hold a supply of 30% to 40% of the currency, and will make their own market, so that even if the price fluctuates, the increase in one hour will not be that large. You will find that on Binance, it is common to increase by 2 or 3 times in a day, but it is very rare to increase by 10 times in one hour, which has not happened in the past two or three years. A 10-fold price surge in one hour will cause many people to be liquidated, which also shows that the liquidity of the sellers of the exchange is very poor and there is not enough selling pressure. Of course, I also have some friends who have been liquidated in other exchanges such as Gate, with their positions rising two or three times in an hour. They are all very good traders in the group, so later everyone stopped using this exchange.

I think some exchanges with Chinese backgrounds are actually a bit of a slouch. Because this field is verymake moneyThere is no need to ignore risk control for a little profit. Just like a casino, how can you let others lose all their money in an hour? The best management is to let gamblers lose money slowly.

Talking about "shorting" and leverage

Nathan: From the perspective of ROI and risk, what is the generally better range for controlling leverage?

Shu: The leverage depends on the coin, and secondly on your conviction about the trade. For example, if you think this may be the absolute bottom, or close to the absolute bottom, I might use 7 or 8 times leverage.Generally, I would avoid using leverage of more than 10 times, because a retracement of 10% is very common. It can even be said that a retracement of 10% is intended to explode these 10x leveraged positions.7 or 8 times is probably the highest I have ever used, and generally it is probably 4 or 5 times. Also, it depends on the position. For example, when I have a lot of money in my position, I might use 2 or 3 times leverage.If a trader tells you that he often uses 20x leverage, either his position is not big enough, which is meaningless, or he is close to liquidation. Because any coin in crypto will be liquidated if you withdraw 5% with 20x leverage.If BTC retraces 10%, won’t the 10x leverage explode? In fact, with 10x leverage, many coins are prone to explosion; many small coins may retrace 30% or 40%, then the 3x and 5x leverage will explode. And generally speaking, the position cannot be filled up all at once, it should be added slowly.

The story of buying Solana at a low price of $9

Nathan: Can you please tell me why you dared to buy Solana at $9?

Shu: Yes, I bought it at $9, and then the price went up to $18 or $19. I think the first opportunity was the bankruptcy of FTX. At that time, FTX exploded, and many people lost a lot of money. After FTX went bankrupt, I didn't try to recover the losses for almost a month. It wasn't until the beginning of December that my emotions slowly calmed down and I began to pay attention to some things. At that time, GCR created a small group in mid-December. About 50 people entered in the first five minutes. We also joined and had some discussions. GCR said that the end of November might be the lowest point and the market was at the absolute bottom. He predicted at the time that there would be a huge rebound in 2023 and a bull market in 2024.

Let me insert here. GCR predicts a lot of things with a high accuracy rate. For example, he predicted in mid-2023 that Trump 90% would be elected as the next US president. According to the current trend, the probability is actually very high. GCR bought Trump's meme coin at a price of 0.1 or 0.2 US dollars. Last week he said thisTokenHe has made a floating profit of more than 35 million US dollars (this conversation was in March this year). He also predicted that Luna would crash, predicted the emergence of friend.tech, and predicted many things. He is the strongest trader in history, no doubt about it.

Generally, ETH's competitor will increase more than ETH. In this cycle, ETH's biggest competitor is still Solana. First, Solana has raised the most money among all ETH killers. Second, Solana is relatively an Americanized public chai. It is named after a beach in San Diego, California. Several of its founders are from Qualcomm, which can be found on LinkedIn. Third, Solana's ecosystem has come up with some attractive things, such as StepN, and some third-party developers have madewallet, their entire team is very Americanized and relatively elite. Another important reason is that I went to their offline store in New York. In June and July 2022, I returned to the United States and found that he opened a physical store here, which proves that his financial resources are still very good, otherwise, he would not have needed to open another store during the bear market. All these prove that Solana still wants to do big things in the next cycle.

At the end of August last year, I went to Mexico to participate in Ethereum's Hackerthon. I felt that Vitalik was completely different from a few years ago. He had several personal bodyguards, and he felt a bit like he was being deified, as if he had no motivation. GCR often said that why a coin should be raised is because it has motivation. It is difficult for a team to succeed without incentive. I think Ethereum is not motivated enough, including Vitalik and other Ethereum OGs who have rested for too long, just like the aging Tencent and Alibaba, and cannot compare with new competitors. These reasons made me think Solana is better than Ethereum, and at that time we calculated that most of Solana's supply was eaten up by FTX.

I remember that in April and May last year, GCR judged that the BTC ETF would definitely pass, but the timing of passing was unknown. Therefore, all the washouts before this timing were normal. Once this timing is passed, if you buy Solana within two or three weeks, you will find that its price is still very low. In addition, when an emotion is pulled to fear the most, it will generally rebound. This is the experience of crypto. Counterfactual is not necessarily the best trade, but the best trade must be counterfactual.

Nathan: Luna is also counterfactual, so why not buy Luna?

Shu:Luna's crash is different. Luna's can be calculated mathematically, but his thing cannot be maintained. The difference in Solana's case is that after FTX collapsed, Solana experienced a huge sell, and after it stabilized in 2022, it proved that most of its selling pressure was gone. We looked at the selling pressure on the order book. We observed it for a long time, about two or three weeks, and found that the sell wall of selling pressure is very low, and only a little buying pressure is needed to push it up. If you believe that FTX is the biggest catalyst, there is no more bearish scenario than this, then BTC has actually reached the bottom. Once BTC stabilizes or rebounds slightly, which ones will rebound the most? This is a very large alpha.

Nathan: Do you think Solana’s FDV will exceed ETH?

Shu: I think it may be a bit difficult for Solana to flip ETH. Because our judgment is that the passage of ETH ETF is basically a foregone conclusion, it is just a matter of time, it is not a question for if but a question for when, then ETH will also rise after the passage of ETH ETF. Solana will definitely pass, but not in this cycle or we don’t know when this cycle will be, so if it does not have this Legitimacy and traditional Traditional big money In, how long it can rise, we don’t know. Therefore, I think it is difficult to flip ETH in this cycle. I think ETH ETF will definitely be realized in this cycle, then with traditional money help, can Solana flip ETH? It is very difficult. Because the scale of traditional funds is not at the same level. (This conversation took place in March of this year, when the market was in the mood of fud Ethereum.)

The second reason is that Ethereum itself has a much longer history than Solana. It can be found in the ranking of coinmarket cap of all cryptocurrencies that it is difficult for later coins to flip to earlier coins. For example, for Ethereum, a whale may have bought it very early, and he does not care whether the price of Ethereum is 3200 or 4000. If he keeps holding it, it means that he does not necessarily have selling pressure and selling incentive, because he is not a trader.

About GCR

Nathan: Let's talk about your GCR group.

Shu: GCR is very strict and only a small number of people can stay in the group. Most of the group members are large traders, and their assets may reach tens of millions of dollars or even billions of dollars.GCR's standards are therefore very strict, and every sentence is required to be rigorous.We mainly discuss price topics, but occasionally we touch on other topics, such as US politics or whether Trump can be elected. For all discussions, we look at them from a trading perspective., so we are very strict to ensure that our words and predictions are accurate. This strict requirement may affect your life, especially if you want to be a good trader, which means that you will have higher requirements for yourself and the environment around you. Of course, it depends on personal choice, but if you choose this path, you must be strict with yourself and ensure that your words and deeds are rigorous. For example,Sometimes GCR will use code words to mention a certain time period or a certain currency, and you need to research to understand what happened during this period and which currencies may be affected. Big traders usually won’t tell you directly, but will give some hints that you need to interpret on your own.

We actually have two small groups, one with about 50 people, and another with about a dozen people. There are some European traders in the group. We summarized the European traders as follows: First, Europeans may have some mysterious self-confidence; second, many European cognitions and cultural preferences may be due to the vast land and sparse population, and Europe always has a sense of cynicism. Europe can't actually influence too many markets, although there are also good traders in Europe. The biggest influence on the market is still American traders, including Wall Street and so on. We say that BlackRock CEO saved the ETF. Otherwise, this bull market cycle would not come so soon.

亚洲交易员的短板是，大部分没有那么深刻理解美国文化，其次是因为大家同质化的思维特别严重，可能是集体教育的原因。这不仅是中国，日本、韩国可能也都这样，当一个币涨的时候，大家都追涨，但大家拼的是 operation excellence，拼的是能快进快出的执行力，但那赚钱还是很累的。最好还是追一个大的趋势，比如说 Solana 在很低的时候买进去，你就一直拿着，这种风格美国散户很喜欢。拿着一直持有，10 倍 20 倍你再出，这比你快进快出要轻松多了，而且对交易员的心态和生理健康也更好。

Nathan: What is the food chain or contempt chain among traders in different regions in terms of market influence?

Shu: From my observation, Europe still has some advantages over Asia. The first reason is that they are relatively closer to white culture and can understand some American culture.One big advantage European traders have is that they don't have the groupthink that Asia has.Europeans, like Americans, are not affected by collective thinking and are more independent thinkers than Asian traders. The second point is that Europe has a certain advantage in time zones. In the Asian time zone and the American time zone, traders have a period of wakefulness. You will find that from the last cycle to the current cycle, when many coins rose and fell sharply, it was often at two or three in the morning in China, which is very unfavorable for Chinese traders or Asian traders. But I recently looked at this cycle and found that some mainstream coins actually performed better in the Asian time zone, but this does not mean that Asian traders are good, because I know that some American traders have moved to Asia.

Nathan: Is it a trend for top North American traders to come and live in Asia?

Shu: Some of them move to Asia mainly because of the cost of living, food and other aspects. With the same amount of money, they can live like an emperor in Asia. But they don't move here for a long time. They come here for a few months or half a year as a kind of relaxation. Because it is difficult to relax in a familiar environment, but when you go to an unfamiliar environment, you may have to learn and adapt.

You can't watch it every day when trading. For example, there are big retracements in the bull market, such as when it retraces 20%. If you watch it every day, it is easy to make some impulsive transactions, just like trying to catch a knife. So the sense of rhythm is very important. When it retraces 20%, you don't know whether it will retrace 25%. At this time, it is best for you to go on vacation for a few days and then come back to observe. Don't try to guess the bottom. I have seen many Asian traders who will try to guess the bottom, and as a result, their mentality is messed up. When it rises, they regret that they didn't buy earlier and chase it again. When it retraces again, their mentality is messed up, and the entire bull market cycle may have a significant reduction in returns.

Nathan: How to solve the problem of earlier and better discovery mechanism? I feel that many Asian traders are not only strong in execution, but also better at early project discovery.

Shu: There is no methodology. First of all, everyone always wants to summarize a paradigm and path, but this may be wrong in crypto trading. For example, the coins that earn 1,000 times or 2,000 times, or people like this, cannot form a methodology. To form a methodology, you must have at least three samples before you can say that a pattern is formed, but this kind of thing generally does not exceed two.

I have seen all kinds of stories flying around in countless cryptocurrency trading groups, but in fact, these things can be ignored after they are funny.You have to strictly control your information input, just like what you eat every day. If you eat pre-prepared meals every day, how can you be healthy? You can't be healthy.I basically only follow two or three Chinese KOLs, and the rest are all English KOLs, so my news source is very clean.Including the content I saw on WeChat, I have quit other groups because you will become a reverse indicator. I have also worked at ByteDance and understand the subtle influence of information flow on people. The information you receive every day will subtly influence you, rather than simply being categorized by your brain. You have to make sure that everything you see is alpha. Or in other words, strive for alpha to the greatest extent possible. This is very important.

Another common mistake is that some people think it is helpful to leave a few negative examples, but in fact this is very wrong. For example, there is a person named Alex in the group. He once made 200 to 300 million US dollars in the last cycle and became the first in the profit list of the FTX trading platform. But then he lost tens of millions of US dollars in a few days. He shared an experience that is worth learning from:The opposite of an error is not necessarily correct, so the counterexample is not valid.Yes, there is no so-called counter indicator.

You need to spend a lot of time in front of the screen. You may need to track each KOL for a long time. For example, if a KOL is a trader, you need to remember many of his calls. If you can't remember, you can use Excel to remember. You need to remember whether many of these traders' calls are accurate.If there are ten advance calls and basically seven or eight of them are accurate, then you should follow him and focus on one class, which may be a method.

In addition, I found that the most powerful traders are introverts, not extroverts, and their egos are not small in their speaking style. People with big egos are not necessarily good traders, but most traders have big egos. Because of their big egos, they attach great importance to every word they send to the public, and they will be responsible for their words.In the GCR group, we will count how many sentences you have said every week, and you will be forced to make a few price predictions every week. You will be judged based on the predictions, and the worst 20% will be kicked out every week. In summary, first, control your information input; second, find your own alpha following.

Talk about subsequent trends

Nathan: What do you think about the market trend and rhythm of this bull market cycle?

Shu: We traders only talk about things that are relatively certain. I dare not say the specific time point. Because I am conservative, I can only say that I think there will definitely be a bull market in 2024, but I am not sure whether it will be in 2025. It may still be in the first quarter of 2025, but I am not sure whether it will be after that. In terms of price, some people say that BTC will reach 200,000 or something like that. I think it is a bit too bullish. Although it is possible, to be honest, I think I will be very happy if it reaches 100,000. Because 100,000 is a big psychological threshold, and many people may underestimate this. 100,000 is six figures, and we are now in five figures. This is a breakthrough at the psychological level, just like the meme coin going to zero. I suspect that most whales will have a sell off when they are close to 90,000 or 100,000. At that time, it depends on the recovery of the sell off. So I think it is good to reach 100,000, and above 100,000 is of course the best, but it actually has little impact on me, because when it reaches 90,000, I may gradually start to reduce BTC and play more altcoins.

Nathan: So how is Solana going?

Shu: Solana is now over 190 (the conversation took place in March this year). I think it will be no problem if it doubles to 300 or 400. I am still relatively conservative. In the last bull market, BTC's ATH was over 60,000. If we add 50% in this bull market, it will be about 100,000. Solana's ATH in the last round was 260, so I conservatively estimate that if we add 50% or 60%, it will be around 400, and it may be higher, because BTC has increased by 50%, and Solana has greater elasticity and will definitely increase by more than that.

The article comes from the Internet:Dialogue with a magical trader: Sneaking into the GCR community, buying Sol at $9

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