BTC continues to fluctuate: the last chance to escape or get on board? What will be the subsequent trend?

As the momentum of inflation in the United States weakens and expectations of interest rate cuts continue to rise, the probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval increases.cryptocurrencyThe market started a wild ride, with Bitcoin breaking through $71,000. Then, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Bitcoin fell below $69,000 again.

Investors have obvious differences under the normal volatility

Bitcoin fluctuated violently, and there were clear differences among market investors.

On May 20, crypto whale 37tr7Binance120 BTC (about $7.97 million) were withdrawn. In one week, a total of 185 BTC were accumulated, with an average price of $64,712. On May 22, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $154 million (2,211 BTC), which was a net inflow for 8 consecutive days.

In contrast, the bearishcryptocurrencyAnalyst James Check said in a May 21 market report that BTC could rally back to $73,000, which could mark the beginning of the asset’s acceleration to “escape velocity.” Check said: “While the transition from enthusiasm to euphoria can happen quickly, it feels like we haven’t reached euphoria escape velocity yet. This price is also the STH (Bitcoin held for less than 155 days)wallet) Now that the price is ‘profit taking’, this could lead to selling and create some resistance.”

cryptocurrency研究机构10x Research 在 X 平台Posted that, sticking to the judgment that Bitcoin is bearish after the halving. In addition, since the halving, the inflow of stablecoins has almost zero growth, and Bitcoin futurescontractThe leverage ratio has also dropped significantly, which supports its judgment. Previously, the research institute also stated that when Bitcoin undergoes triangular consolidation, investors should pay attention to potential "fake dip" situations. The relative strength of Bitcoin has fallen back to a low of 40% in this adjustment, which is similar to the three adjustments of Bitcoin since the beginning of 2023.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt previously wrote that Bitcoin prices may have peaked in the current bull market cycle when they hit a new high of $73,835, and predicted that they would fall back to around $30,000 or evenXiaobai NavigationHe attributes this expected pullback to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes will affect the price of Bitcoin, which has recently hit new highs, and believes that such a drop could be the "most beneficial thing" in the long run.

Still bullish in the long term

MIIX Capital Investment Research analyzed in its latest weekly research report that the implied volatility of BTC's short-term out-of-the-money put options is still higher than that of call options, indicating that the market's concerns about the recent price correction have not been eliminated, but the implied volatility of long-term options remains stable, showing that institutions are optimistic about BTC's long-term prospects.

PlanB posted on the X platform that the average price of Bitcoin in the 2020-2024 halving cycle is $34,000, slightly lower than the $55,000 predicted by the S2F model in 2019, but still within the normal range, considering that the Bitcoin price was less than $4,000 when the prediction was made. The modified S2F model using the new data shows similar parameters and results: Bitcoin price will reach $500,000 in 2024-2028 and $4 million in 2028-2032.

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, recently wrote that in order to curb the depreciation of the yen, the Federal Reserve may reach an unlimited dollar-yen swap agreement with the Bank of Japan, which is consistent with the implementation of the yield curve control policy (YCC), that is, the yield of US Treasury bonds is lower than it should be. In addition, as supply increases, the dollar will also depreciate. He also said that the pace of yen depreciation will accelerate in the fall, which will force the US and Japanese governments to take action. Hayes predicts that if his theoretical prediction comes true, it will trigger a new round of cryptocurrency increases, and Bitcoin is even expected to hit the $1 million mark.

In view of the crypto market where "volatility is the norm and long-term bullishness", now is the best time to ambush and build positions. To this end, Huobi HTX launched a trading mining activity, where users can trade BTC at a negative rate and share huge rewards, so as to better meet users' trading needs and improve trading experience.

Huobi HTX trading mining activities include spot trading andcontract交易。用户可通过交易现货BTC/USDT交易对、永续contractBTC/USDT交易对参与活动，瓜分每日各10万USDT等值$HTX奖池。参与用户需火箭值≥300，并在活动页面成功报名。

Huobi HTX trading mining has also innovatively proposed a 7*24h reward mechanism - the daily bonus pool is divided into 24 periods, and the rewards are updated every hour to ensure that users have equal opportunities to participate in different time periods. The maximum reward per person per hour for spot/contract trading mining is 100 USDT. After reaching the personal mining reward limit or the bonus pool limit, the reward will not increase.

Currently, the Trading Mining Pizza Festival special event is coming to an end, with a 7-day cumulative prize pool of 1.4 million USDT for participants to share.

Since the launch of spot trading and mining on Huobi HTX, the market response has been enthusiastic, and users have participated enthusiastically, winning wide acclaim. Huobi HTX will continue to improve the service quality of the platform and strive to create a platform for users by introducing innovative products.Safety, convenient, efficient and feature-rich trading environment.

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