Solana Meme collective enthusiasm on the other side: most will be crazy callback 70%, liquidity bottleneck has become the norm

Quite a few memes have an ATH of over $100 million, but few can actually maintain that level of value.

Written by:Smolresearcharc (summer period)

Compiled by: Xiaobai Navigation coderworld

A few days ago,@cryptowhail At five in the morning, I was asked an existential question: "Are we in an active period in the SOL market now?" This question made me start thinking about how the Meme on the SOL chain has performed since the fourth quarter of last year.

We looked at the data. This data comes from the past few months. @CryptoKoryo passdune dashboard SOL Meme released. It was a manual process of picking the memes and finding the data, but I think we did a pretty good job.

We plotted the current market cap (blue) versus the all-time high (orange + blue) over the past few months:

Solana Meme 集体狂热另一面:大多数会疯狂回调70%,流动性瓶颈已成常态

November 2023: PEEP, WIF

December 2023: VONSPEED to POPCAT

January 2024: BLOCK to SOLAMA

February 2024: SNP to CHAT

March 2024: ACAT to BOME

April 2024: POOWEL to MANEKI

May 2024: BUNI to CRODIE

Some observations:

  • It is difficult to break through the market value of 300 million, not to mention breaking through $1 billion. Only WIF, MYRO, POPCXiaobai NavigationAT, SC, BODEN, SLERF, BODEN, MEW, and BOME successfully broke through.

  • Currently, only WIF, POPCAT, and MEW (barely) have a market cap of more than $300 million. This shows how difficult it is to maintain a high market cap in this meme-saturated environment.

  • Quite a few memes have reached ATHs above $100 million, butVery few can really sustainIn addition to the above mentioned, we also have MYRO, SC (barely kept), BODEN, SLERF, MICHI.

  • Most Memes haveHuge retracement (See the ratio of orange to blue). Unfortunately, the data is skewed for WIF and BOME, but the average retracement from the ATH for all memes is 72%. This shows that you have to chase winners really hard, or those with high liquidity (CEX liquidity like WIF, or newer coins that don’t have much retracement).

Notable callbacks include:

  • PEEP: Down 95% ($24M) from ATH - November 2023

  • VONSPEED: Down 92% ($8.2M) from ATH - December 2023

  • SILLY: Down 91% from ATH ($161.4M) - December 2023

  • KPOP: 91% down from ATH ($24.3M) - January 2024

  • WYNN: Down 96% ($84.2M) from ATH - January 2024

  • AMC: Down 91% from ATH ($10.6M) - February 2024

  • ACAT: Down 91% ($8.3M) from ATH - February 2024

  • AABL: Down 93% ($54.7M) from ATH - March 2024

  • PENG: Down 93% ($213.8M) from ATH - March 2024

  • MIMANY: Down 92% ($44.2M) from ATH - April 2024

  • HAROLD: Down 93% ($58.9M) from ATH - April 2024

  • HOBBES: Down 97% ($132.6M) from ATH - April 2024

  • DEVIN: Down 98% ($14.9M) from ATH - May 2024

Interestingly, I would have thought the data would show us something like the following (cyclical decline), but there appear to be some outperformers (BOME liquidity is plentiful, insiders know it willBinanceIt is worth noting that, apart from BOME and WIF, no other memecoins are listed onBinanceGo public.

Solana Meme 集体狂热另一面:大多数会疯狂回调70%,流动性瓶颈已成常态

What does the data tell us?

  1. wantBreaking through certain market cap levels is very difficultOf: $30 million/100 million/300 million, not to mention maintaining it after the big drop, it looks like this is still a trader's market.

  2. The retracement from ATH has been brutalThe average drawdown rate of 72% and the average liquidity of 3% (compared to the current market value) means that if you join at the top, it will be difficult to withdraw your initial investment.

  3. @cryptowhail about UsEntering the SOL Meme active stageThe reviews may not be as accurate as people think. For this to happen, we need to see more winners in April/May that beat the likes of POPCAT or MYRO.

  4. But for now,SOL is where you bet. On-chain transaction volume is up. Pump.fun plus multiple memes launched on SOL every day means everyone is keeping an eye on their bots andwalletTrackers, trying to catch the next winner (which by the way, looks like there are fewer winners unless you want to make 2-3x). But we are in the trenches working hard for that miraculous 100x.

Solana Meme 集体狂热另一面:大多数会疯狂回调70%,流动性瓶颈已成常态

The article comes from the Internet:Solana Meme collective enthusiasm on the other side: most will be crazy callback 70%, liquidity bottleneck has become the norm

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