MIIX Capital Investment Research Weekly Report: Sign of recovery after the shock

Written by: MIIX Capital

Last week, when the BTC price fell below the $40,000 mark (which was once the psychological support point for most investors), the BTC spot ETF trading volume once again exceeded $2 billion. At the same time, GBTC saw an outflow of more than $640 million on the same trading day.Xiaobai NavigationUnder the hood, underlying market liquidity and market structure appear to be undergoing dramatic changes.

Judging from the data, Grayscale's selling pressure seems to be slowing down day by day, which is interpreted by the industry as a positive signal to ease the market's downward trend. JPMorgan Chase even stated in its latest report that GBTC's profit-taking wave has basically ended, injecting a touch of warmth into the market in the cold winter season.

1. Investment and Financing Observation

Last week (01.22~01.28) globalBlockchainThere are 35 investment and financing cases with a total funding of more than US$260 million:

• There are 6 investment and financing in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi)Among them, the on-chain financial platform VETA Finance completed a strategic financing of US$2.85 million, led by Matrixport Ventures;

• There are 3 investment and financing in the field of NFT and MetaverseAmong them, the NFT cross-chain lending protocol Singular completed a $3 million seed round of financing, led by IOBC Capital;

• There are 5 investment and financing in the GameFi field, among which Web3 game monetization platform 3thix completed $8.5 million in financing;

• There were 12 investments and financings in infrastructure and tools.Among them, Layer 2 development company Polymer Labs completed a US$23 million Series A financing round, led by Blockchain Capital, Maven 11 and Distributed Global, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Placeholder, Digital Money Group, North Island Ventures and Figment Capital.

• There are 5 other Web3 and crypto projects that have received investment and financing.Among them, Farcaster ecological project Wield announced on the X platform that it had completed a Pre-Seed round of financing of over 1 million US dollars, led by Lemniscap;

• There are 4 investment and financing events in the field of centralized finance.incryptocurrencyBank Sygnum completed over $40 million in financing at a valuation of $900 million;

与上周相比，本周加密货币市场投融笔数增长显著，在细分领域，本周投融金额集中在基础设施方向。千万美元级融资 6 笔，包括 ETH 历史数据协议 Axiom、由 AI Driven brand protection platform Doppel, Web3 digital identity service platform Root Protocol, crypto bank Sygnum, crypto mining machine manufacturer Canaan Technology, and CryptoSafe, which focuses on improving capital efficiency in the cryptocurrency market.

2. Industry data

FTX asset liquidation, Grayscale selling pressure eased

BitMEX Research data: As of January 27, on the 11th trading day after the listing of the US BTC spot ETF, Grayscale GBTC outflow was US$255.1 million, and 6,000 BTC were transferred from GBTC. In the past 11 trading days, the total outflow of GBTC has exceeded US$5 billion.

A large part of this was FTX’s bankruptcy liquidation, which sold nearly $1 billion worth of stock (22 million shares), bringing FTX’s GBTC ownership down to zero, according to private data reviewed by CoinDesk and two people familiar with the matter. In theory, now that FTX has completed a large amount of the selling, the selling pressure may have eased because the bankruptcy liquidation is a relatively unique event.

Like many large crypto trading entities, FTX exploits the difference between the Grayscale Trust share price and the net asset value of the underlying BTC in the fund. As of October 25, 2023, FTX held 22.3 million GBTC, worth $597 million, according to a filing dated November 3, 2023.
In addition, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart tweeted: GBTC's outflow rate is expected to be higher than 20%, but not more than 35%, while GBTC has already had 13% of outflows. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas previously said: 35% of GBTC outflows may flow to the other 9 Bitcoin spot ETFs, especially retirement accounts, because tax considerations are not a problem for them.

ETH options trading volume hits new high

The Block data: As of January 26, major cryptocurrency derivativesexchangeEthereum options trading volume reached a record high of $17.9 billion. According to GreeksLive options data, multiple options for approximately 932,000 ETH expired at 3:00 a.m. EST on January 26, and ETH options were not closed.contractThe call ratio of Ethereum options on Deribit has reached 0.31. At the same time, the put-call ratio of Ethereum options on Deribit has dropped to 0.3 before the options expire. The market sentiment is generally bullish.

A put-to-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered to indicate bullish market sentiment, while a put-to-call ratio above 1 is generally considered to indicate bearish market sentiment; when the put-to-call ratio is below 1, it means that there are more calls (buy options) relative to puts (sell options), indicating that there is a general bullish sentiment in the market.

Smart Money Moves: $ezETH

This week, SmartMoney still flows into the Restaking track in large quantities.TokenAmong the inflow data, $ezETH received more attention.

ezETH is the staking of Renzo ProtocolToken; Renzo Protocol received a seed round of financing led by Maven11 on January 15, 2024, with a valuation of US$25 million; Renzo is a liquid derivatives platform built on EigenLayer. It acts as an interface to the EigenLayer ecosystem by protecting the Active Verification Service (AVS) and providing higher returns than ETH staking. For every LST or ETH deposited in Renzo, it will mint an equal amount of ezETH;

The multiplier effect brings high expectations to SSV

The current market value of SSV is 213 million US dollars, and FDV is 339 million US dollars. According to SSV's economic model, current market value, and future expectations, the SSV multiple is expected to exceed 5 times in this round of bull market.

SSV itself represents a chain, and SSV validators stake ETH on behalf of stakers, so it is possible to derive multiple application solutions. In addition, SSV is essentially EigenLayer. If SSV introduces a multi-application staking pilot, it will greatly enhance the value of the SSV network.

In the discussion of Pectra upgrade, the centralization issue of Lido was once again raised. At present, Lido's market share has reached 32%. Once it exceeds 33%, it will have a strong impact on how ETH transactions are added. Its solution has been fully discussed in 2023, using DVT (distributed validator technology) services including Obol network, SSV, DIVA, etc. The basic principle is to decentralize the infrastructure by splitting the key.

67.4% RSIC is activated

据官方消息，截至 1 月 24 日，已有 14,150 枚比特币符文游戏Token RSIC 处于激活状态，占总量的 67.4%，部分从业者认为，符文有可能在铭文之后成为阶段性的市场焦点。

RSIC (Rune Specific Inscription Circuits) is a peer-to-peer rune distribution system based on Bitcoin. At its core, RSIC is a digital game where players earn runes by managing and manipulating RSIC tokens, which will be "engraved" on the Bitcoin network at some point in the future. In RSIC's supply chain, there is a "factory" that produces RSIC, a "distribution center" that distributes RSIC, and a "furnace" for inscribing runes. A total of 21,000 RSICs were manufactured and distributed to Ordinals for free through the distribution center. Community, which is used to "mine" runes. The main goal of the player is to activate and use RSIC to obtain runes, which are distributed in each Bitcoin block to the address holding the activated RSIC. There are four modes for the distribution of runes: flat, random, enhanced, and halved. Players can choose to mine runes, sell RSIC on the market, or choose not to participate.

3. VC holdings data

Note: The above data comes from https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/, statistical time: January 29, 2024 12:00AM (UTC+8).

4. This week's focus

January 31

• POLY Migrates from Ethereum to Polymesh Network (POLYX)

• Ethereum L2 Frame Network Launches Mainnet and Tokens

February 1

• Ethereum Sepolia will perform Dencun upgrade at 6:51 AM

• Federal Reserve interest rate decision

February 2

• US unemployment rate in January

• US non-farm data released

5 Conclusion

In the past week, the worldBlockchainThe investment and financing activities in the field have shown a significant active trend, with both the number of financing events and the scale of funds increasing. The capital market and institutions have begun to lay out the sub-sectors in advance, and with the liquidation of FTX assets, Grayscale's selling pressure has eased.

As for the upcoming policy decisions and macroeconomic data releases, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US non-farm data, we should also remain vigilant and pay attention to the impact these events may have on the cryptocurrency market.

At present, the market is still affected by various factors. Although the shock adjustment seems to be coming to an end and has begun to release signs of recovery, we still need to maintain a keen insight into industry dynamics and be prepared to deal with unexpected market fluctuations.

The article comes from the Internet:MIIX Capital Investment Research Weekly Report: Sign of recovery after the shock

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