Author: Hedy Bi, Ouke Cloud Chain Research Institute

Two days ago, we proposed that for the Bitcoin spot ETF marketThe United States will not let go easily. After ten years of sharpening the sword, today, this milestone has finally arrived. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, which will be listed on Chicago Optionsexchange(CBOE), New York Securitiesexchange(NYSE) and Nasdaqexchange(NASDAQ) listing meansBitcoin will be officially connected to the global financial system.

This journey has not been easy. To this day, there are still many doubts about the “approval” of the resolution itself and about the future challenges faced by the Bitcoin ETF that has been passed.

Avoid the "circus atmosphere" and treat Bitcoin "normally" first

With the release of the SEC approval document, SEC commissioners also issued a statement of different positions, with support from SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce, a long-time Crypto advocate, and elaborated on the decade-long "rejection" and her personal thoughts on it. The SEC’s view, stating that “by failing to follow our normal standards and processes when considering spot Bitcoin ETPs, we created an artificial frenzy around them. If these products entered the market in the usual manner for other similar products, we would It would avoid the circus atmosphere we are in now.”

Figure “SEC creates an artificial frenzy”

The SEC, which most wants to maintain "market neutrality", has also been integrated into the huge carnival of the market.

Bitcoin is as groundbreaking as the gold mined from mines thousands of years ago. However, now that people are in the digital age, the tools for mining have changed, and the precious metals mined have also become digital goods.Like gold ETFs, the adoption of Bitcoin spot ETFs can enable investors to obtain Bitcoin investment returns by purchasing ETF shares without directly holding and managing Bitcoins.

If you look at Bitcoin from a "normal" perspective, the market may not need to wait ten years.

Two major factors holding back the SEC

In the past ten years, the two most questioned aspects were mainly"Bitcoin custodySafety"Sex Issue" and "Bitcoin ETF Possible Manipulation Issue",This was also reiterated in the approval document.

Just like the gold ETF just mentioned, the emergence of Bitcoin spot ETF is to provide investors with convenient and low-threshold investment methods. So who exactly are the “investors” here?

ETFs are prepared for funds, institutional investors and retail investors who are unable to hold underlying assets.In other words, unified and centralized custody by custodians helps investors who are unable to directly hold underlying assets. Technically speaking,Custody for BitcoinSafetySexual issues, what’s happening in the Web3 industrywalletBusiness leaders can be studied or directly cooperated with.

Screenshot of SEC approval document

And for Bitcoin EThe concerns that TF may be manipulated were also detailed in a statement from SEC Commissioner Caroline A. Crenshaw. She believes that the global spot market behind Bitcoin ETPs is troubled by fraud and manipulation, concentration and lack of adequate supervision.

Figure “Correlation does not protect investors”

Although it has been calculated in the approval document that starting from 2021, the correlation between the BTC price (spot) of the two crypto exchanges Coinbase and Kraken and the CME futures price, measured on an hourly basis, the correlation is as high as 95% to 99%. Therefore, if there is market manipulation, the SEC can detect it through the futures market.

Screenshot of SEC approval document

However, monitoring the futures market to predict the spot market can be used as an investment data indicator for investors, but it cannot be completely used by regulatory agencies as an indicator to comprehensively monitor market manipulation.Futures and spot markets are completely different. The futures market is for execution at a certain point in time in the futurecontractA trading venue, while the spot market is a market where real assets are traded in real time.

The Bitcoin spot market is just like the first piece of gold was dug out in ancient Mesopotamia and Egypt around 4000 BC and was subsequently gradually priced by ancient Greece and other countries and regions.The gradually formed global market is decentralized and multi-centered.

Investor protection cannot be achieved by relying on a regulatory agency or through the futures market to regulate the already booming spot market. Therefore, using technology to solve the problems caused by technology is the right answer.Through the analysis of on-chain data, large-scale changes, etc., we can learn the evidence that this market may be manipulated from the first time.

3 views on the future

1. Companies providing technical solutions in the Web3 industry will be in the spotlight.

In this SEC approval document, we see the public’s focus on technologySafety、托管安全以及监控缺失等问题的担忧。The market's concerns are also the market's huge needs.Therefore, as crypto asset markets and financial markets continue to expand connectivity, the need for this will continue to expand.

Data analysis tool companies such as Chainalysis, OKLink, Elliptics, etc., as well as cold and hotwalletCompanies with mature security technologies will usher in the trend.对于比特币的托管安全性问题，Web3行业中在做walletBusiness leaders can be studied or directly cooperated with.

2. ETFs and decentralization do not conflict.

As development progressed, the Bitcoin spot market was already taking shape before ETFs were added. Otherwise, there would not be institutions that would lower fees to attract investors. In addition to hoping to attract investors to enter, there is also a "scale effect" in the rate. When ETXiaobai NavigationAs the size of F increases, management fees and operating costs can be spread over more assets, thereby lowering the rate per ETF. Therefore, it can also reversely illustrate the confidence of financial institutions.

Whether VanEck founder Jan van Eck issued a statement this morning, he mentioned that the proceeds from 5% will be directly contributed to Bitcoin developers.Community, or Bitcoin holders who have overcome transaction costs, Bitcoin andBlockchainThe concept that technology is a public good has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

3. The Bitcoin Spot ETF provides a groundbreaking precedent for other non-security crypto ETPs.

"Now that we know the committee can perform robust correlation analysis, perhaps the road to approval of other spot crypto ETPs will be less bumpy," Hester Pierce said in her statement.

Figure “The road is less bumpy for other spot crypto ETPs”

However, we should note that this approval is based on a non-security Crypto spot ETF. The SEC Chairman’s statement mentioned that today’s action by the Commission is limited to ETPs holding Bitcoin, a non-security commodity. ” Therefore, subsequent “other” crypto assets,It is necessary to first clarify whether it is a security.

For Ethereum, it's in a murky zone.However, various financial giants have already made arrangements. According to the table below, the SEC’s final response deadline for the first VanEck application is May 23, 2024.

No matter how many "concerns" there were, this accelerated approval document was released. The SEC, which least wanted to become a promoter of the market's fanatical atmosphere, was tolerated by this tolerant market and became a member of this "circus atmosphere."With the gradual expansion of compliant and low-threshold investment channels and the continuous maturation of supporting tools and technologies, this market will gradually mature, so that it can fundamentally break away from the "circus atmosphere".

This time, the market won! Tonight, a new era in the U.S. crypto market is about to begin.

The article comes from the Internet:Ten years of hard work, written after the US Bitcoin spot ETF was approved

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